Senate Conservative Coalition Opposes: Leading By Example

Earlier today, the Senate Conservative Coalition (or whatever they're called these days) filed paperwork with the Secretary of State to begin collecting signatures to require term limits on officeholders to two terms per office.

Bear in mind that state Sen. Chris McDaniel, the leader of Senate conservatives, is currently running for his third term to the state senate.

Should their efforts to place language on the ballot imposing these term limits fail, will Senate conservatives (assuming they win re-election) abide by a self-imposed two-term rule? If McDaniel's re-election is any indication, this does not seem likely. If the initiative does make it onto the ballot, we should all look forward to the likely debate over alternative ballot language like we saw earlier this year with the Initiative 42 alternative.

Senate Conservative Coalition Opposes: Crowds

Happening now! The United Conservatives Fund, a political action committee led by state Senator, and person still running for the US Senate, Chris McDaniel, is having an event in Pearl, Mississippi. As you  can see from the picture below, parking was not a problem for the ones of attendees. 

Photo Source: Mississippi Public Broadcasting

Cochran camp threatens litigation over vote-buying allegations; my earlier hunch was right

The Cochran campaign is apparently deciding whether or not to sue Charles C. Johnson, the weird guy from California who the Tea Party Express brought into Mississippi to help with the McDaniel campaign, as well as Stevie Fielding, the minister who says the Cochran campaign engaged him to buy votes.  We'll see what happens with that going forward.  Paul Hampton has that story over at the Sun-Herald's Crawdaddy blog.

Also in that story is this quote from Jordan Russell:

He said the reason the text messages in Johnson's story mention names and addresses is those are needed for FEC forms that are filled out to show where money went.

That gels with my thinking in this previous post from earlier today:  The one big problem with the proof in the alleged Cochran vote-buying scheme.  In short, I don't think this Fielding guy is telling the truth.

*Edited to add the complete quote from Russell, this from the Clarion-Ledger:

Russell said the campaign hired Fielder for get-out-the-vote work. 

"We hire a lot of people, black, white, young, old, to help with get out the vote efforts," Russell said. "… Whether you're a high school kid in Northeast Jackson or a retired nurse in Greenwood, if you're out working doors for us, you get paid in cash, in an envelope. Saleem asked the guy for names and addresses for (Federal Election Commission) filing purposes. Why would you ask a guy for names and addresses if you're buying votes?"

Exactly. 

The one big problem with the proof in the alleged Cochran vote-buying scheme

If you look closely at the alleged texts from Saleem Baird, Baird asks for something that looks a bit off in a vote-buying scheme: the names and home addresses of the payees. 

Why would a campaign ask for names and addresses of the payees in a vote-buying scheme? My thought is that they wouldn't. Looking at the pictures of the texts provided so far, I am of the opinion that Baird was looking to Fielding to provide workers on Election Day, and needed that info fill out campaign finance reports. 

***COCHRAN CAMPAIGN RESPONDS TO VOTE-BUYING ALLEGATIONS***

Sen. Thad Cochran's camp issued the following response to the allegations of vote-buying made by Meridian's Rev. Stevie Fielder:

"There is absolutely no truth to these baseless and false allegations," said Cochran campaign spokesman Jordan Russell. "It comes from a blogger who in the last 24 hours has accused a Mississippi public official of being responsible for an individual's death and had to retract other outlandish accusations regarding another Mississippi elected official. The author of this article admits he paid his source for this story."

Truth be told, Chuck Johnson (they guy who reported the story) and Rev. Fielder don't make for the most believable of characters. That being said, Speaker pro tem Rep. Greg Snowden (R - Meridian) trusted Rev. Fielder enough to pay him over $2,500 in his last campaign for "organizational assistance."

At least parts of Fielder's story should be easy to verify. He has text messages, and he claims to have been called by Cochran folks. Phone records would easily verify whether or not those calls and texts actually came from the people he claims made them. And considering that Fielder just laid out his part as a co-conspirator in an illegal election fraud scheme, there's no reason subpoenas can't issue for his records.

And we thought we'd seen it all. 

*My apologies for the font issues in this post. I'll fix them shortly

MS House Speaker pro tempore paid alleged Cochran vote buyer immediately following 2011 election

As if there weren't enough tentacles to this deal, the minister making the accusations of vote-buying against Sen. Thad Cochran's campaign staff was recently paid by Rep. Greg Snowden (R - Meridian) for "campaign organizational assistance" immediately following the 2011 election.

It's at the bottom of the very last page of this report filed by Snowden in January of 2012.

As a result of that election, Rep. Snowden would become the Speaker pro tempore of the Mississippi House of Representatives.

***DETAILS OF ALLEGED VOTE-BUYING SCHEME BY COCHRAN STAFF UNVEILED***

It's the race that won't end, folks.  The full story is here, along with pictures of emails and a recorded phone interview.  It's all there.  Super-shady news source, U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker staffer (who has a prior arrest history) arranging vote-buying through a black minister in Meridian, $15 per vote, emails, etc.

More to come on this.

So, what does last night mean for Travis Childers?

It's no secret that a McDaniel victory last night would have been a boon to Democratic senatorial nominee Travis Childers.  He would have begun as a favorite in the polls, and would have become the prohibitive favorite within a week or so as Thad-supporting Republican voters recoiled at McDaniel's rhetoric.  National money would have flowed in like manna from heaven.  And it certainly appeared like that was all about to take place.

Then Democrats rushed to the polls to vote for Cochran, and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.  The fact that they did that speaks volumes about how a sizable chunk of Mississippi Democrats feel about the competency of the Mississippi Democratic Party and the electorate as a whole.  But contrary to what some are saying, it doesn't say anything about the character of those crossover voters.  They simply don't think a Democrat can win a federal election statewide, and I don't blame them for feeling that way.  Democratic candidates not named Jim Hood haven't exactly given them much to believe in lately.

Now that we have the table set for a Cochran-Childers race, does Travis Childers stand a chance?  I haven't completed my analysis of the numbers from last night, but it appears to me that the answer is yes.  Here's why:  If the Democrats who put Cochran over the top last night come home, and if McDaniel voters split away from the Cochran camp, then we have exactly the same statistical scenario Democrats were counting on to beat McDaniel, which was a splintered Republican vote and a strong Democratic turnout.

Until I can crunch the numbers a good bit more, all I've got is this back-of-the-napkin-style analysis.  It appears as though Cochran got around 40,000 Democrats to vote for him yesterday.  McDaniel had approximately 185,000 voters.  Looking at the 2007 Mississippi gubernatorial race, which is an imperfect comparison for many reasons, but still the best comparison available in my estimation, Haley Barbour received 430,807 votes to John Arthur Eaves, Jr.'s 313,232.  If you take 40,000 from Barbour's '07 number, and then figure in a third of McDaniel's voters staying home or voting for McDaniel via write-in, the GOP number shrinks to 329,757, a mere 16,000-vote advantage over Eaves's '07 number.  When you factor in the differences between Eaves '07 and Childers '14, it is certainly not inconceivable that Childers could substantially best the Eaves numbers.

So while this path for Childers certainly isn't as easy as the path to victory over McDaniel, a Childers victory in November remains a very realistic possibility.

Footnote:  This post is written before McDaniel makes his intentions clear.  He certainly appeared to be soldiering on last night, but no one knows if that passion will hold.  One option for McDaniel is to rage against the MSGOP machine from now through November, possibly raising his profile for a statewide run in 2015.  If he is to do that, then his effect on the Cochran-Childers race could be substantial.

Gun rights GOP's demise?

A few days before the primary, a letter from the National Association for Gun Rights went out urging Mississippi voters to vote for Chris McDaniel, claiming he is in "100% support for your gun rights." Despite his 100% rating and endorsement from the National Rifle Association, the NAGR's letter claims Senator Thad Cochran is hiding his anti-gun views because he did not return their candidate survey.

While this might seem like a fairly innocuous mailer, a similar survey unanswered in Virginia by Rep. Eric Cantor is being partially blamed for his defeat last week. From Politico's analysis:

"A few weeks out from the election, the Virginia Citizens Defense League, a gun rights group, pressed Cantor’s campaign to perform what they saw as a routine request: reaffirm his support for the Second Amendment by completing a simple questionnaire. It was the kind of request any typical Republican running in a conservative district would answer.
But Cantor ignored the group, which claims 26,000 supporters, as he had for years. The congressman never responded to the survey or its plea to relocate an annual GOP event in the district from a pavilion that banned concealed guns... The slight, his critics argued, was emblematic of Cantor’s broader attitude that he was untouchable."

The bigger picture in Virginia, and the same picture being painted here in Mississippi, was of course that the Washington folks are out of touch with the people back home. This particular issue also represents the Tea Party and GOP's incessant fight to out-conservative one another. Though rumors are circulating that many outside groups are not participating in this runoff, we'll see how the mailers and commercials evolve over the last few days.

As for the NAGR, they touted their own victory in Virginia over Cantor last week. The article also highlights the press conference they gave last year to a room full of their staffers posing as reporters. A simple search of the group produces some equally bizarre message board threads.

The entire NAGR letter endorsing McDaniel is below.

NAGR Endorsement of Chris McDaniel

Republican Unity on June 25?

An article in the Daily Journal this morning about Mississippi's Republican Senate primary left me with more questions than answers. The article discussed the rallying Mississippi Republicans will have to do once their runoff election occurs on June 24. The first question that lingers is "Do we honestly expect that unity to occur?"

Being in the middle of the action in Rankin County, I have heard from folks in each campaign say things like "If Thad wins, I'm staying home in November" or "If McDaniel wins, I'm staying home in November." I suppose this is one level of unity. Nerves are frayed for sure, and I just don't see how these hardened positions soften between now and November.

The second question I had was "Where are the governor and the speaker?" I couldn't help but notice that the Republican elected official quoted in the article was House Speaker Pro Tem Greg Snowden (R-Meridian). I know Snowden thinks I'm "full of it," but on Father's Day, I will give him some credit. I believe Snowden does a good job advocating for his party and staying on message. Still, it's pretty noticeable that Speaker Gunn (R-Clinton) has been completely missing in action from the Senate campaign for as far back as I can recall. I wasn't invited to the Cochran rally at the Ag Museum in Jackson a few weeks ago, yet I don't remember seeing any pictures or video of Gunn on the stage with the other Republican leaders.

Even Governor Phil Bryant has been mostly absent from the campaign trail with Cochran. At a recent visit to Rankin County, Lt. Governor Tate Reeves helped Cochran shake hands and talk with voters from Reeves's home county. Phil Bryant is also from Rankin County, but I have not talked with anyone (and I have asked) who has seen Bryant on the stump for the state's senior United States Senator. It's an odd spectacle having a governor of the same political party not helping the campaign of a sitting senator. I know Bryant's former chief of staff is Cochran's campaign manager (in name only these days), but that's about where Bryant's involvement ends.

The examples of Gunn and Bryant lead me to two primary conclusions. First, Gunn and Bryant do not care about this election and are only concerned about their own survival. Second, Gunn and Bryant are still scared of the tea party. The second concern is understandable but only if you have a room you don't want someone sneaking into. If this is the level of effort Gunn and Bryant are putting into a campaign for a United States Senate seat, candidates running for office next year should not expect a lot of help from Gunn or Bryant - as if it would help in the first place. With friends like these...

MDT Reminds Us There Are No Good Choices in MSGOP Primary

GOP Primary Offers No Good Option for Mississippi Children 
Mississippi Democratic Trust Press
June 12, 2014

On Thursday, Brandon Jones, Director of the Mississippi Democratic Trust, issued the following statement regarding the Mississippi Republican U.S. Senate Primary:

“The options for Mississippians planning to vote in the Republican Senate Primary are a man who has already proven that he will vote against our children and another man who promises he will.

“On one hand, there is an incumbent senator who has repeatedly voted against C.H.I.P., a program that provides health coverage to nearly 8 million children.  On the other hand, there is a challenger who promises to shut down the Department of Education.

“Pundits have called this race an embarrassment of riches for Mississippi Democrats.  The truth is this is simply an embarrassment for the state of Mississippi.

“Let there be no mistake, when it comes to public policies that give Mississippi children a head start in life, Cochran and McDaniel are both bad options.”

####


Background

Cochran votes against C.H.I.P. Program: HR 976 (August 2, 2007); HR 976 (September 27, 2007); HR 3963 (November 1, 2007); and HR 2 (January 29, 2009);

McDaniel statement on DOE: Philip Elliott and Emily Wagster Pettus, Miss. Senate Race: McDaniel’s School Plan Targeted, AP (June 7, 2014).

Thad Cochran's attempt to gain black crossover votes has flopped

Sen. Thad Cochran made a much-discussed effort to sway African-American voters to vote for him in the GOP primary today. That effort appears to have failed miserably. 

I've gotten reports of light turnout across the state today in GOP boxes in African-American areas, so I decided to verify that for myself. Here's what I found:

In 2011, there were 173 Democratic primary voters at the Jackson Medical Mall, 0 GOP primary voters. As of 3:44 pm today, there were 52 Dem voters, 2 GOP. Not exactly in line with Thad's hopes. 

Down the road at Bishop Avenue Institutional AME, in 2011, there were 236 Democratic primary voters, and 0 GOP primary voters. At 3:59 pm today, there were 88 Dem primary voters, and 3 GOP voters. 

It appears as though Thad's crossover efforts in the black community fell absolutely flat. One has to wonder about the wisdom of that late-game maneuver in the face of racially-radicalized Mississippi Republican primary voters. 

Takeaway Regarding new Arrests in Cochran Photography Case

Cottonmouth isn't the first to break this news, and you've probably seen this from other sources.  Mark Mayfield, a Madison County Republican has been arrested in connection to the Cochran photography case. Per Geoff Pender and Sam Hall:

The vice chairman of the Mississippi Tea Party and one other suspect have been arrested in connection with the photographing of the bedridden wife of U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran.

Attorney Mark Mayfield, a vice chairman of the Mississippi Tea Party and an officer with the Central Mississippi Tea Party, was arrested Thursday by Madison police. The second suspect arrested has not been identified.

But what hasn't been reported speaks to a larger issue in the narrative of this brutal Republican primary. Local journalists, national reporters, and Cochran supporters have been quick to point out that Mayfield was active in the Tea Party, but none have mentioned his longstanding connection and membership with the Madison County Republican Executive Committee.

The Cochran campaign would like you to view these people as radicals and outside of the mainstream.  And they are correct.

What is truly unfortunate is that this does not exempt them from the establishment. Republicans (in Mississippi and elsewhere) have used the value of the Tea Party brand until it has worn thin; they are now looking to shed that brand. But as we've seen across the country, the only difference is how the words are spoken. Don't be fooled.

Meet the new Republican Party. Same as the old one. 

What the....

Pro-Chris McDaniel blogger Clayton Kelly of Pearl was arrested by Madison police for allegedly sneaking into Thad Cochran's wife's room at St. Catherine's Village. While there, he supposedly took photos of her without her consent.

The Clarion-Ledger has the story on its site. 

I have to admit, I'd never heard of "Constitutional Kelly" before reading the C-L article. Also, we're one gay hooker story away from this being perhaps the ugliest race in recent Mississippi political history. Mr. Mounger, there's still time....

Chris McDaniel's radio show comments, poor choice of friends shake up the MSGOP Senate primary

National media began to run with old clips of Chris McDaniel's "The Right Side" radio program over the past week, and the stuff they've released isn't pretty.

• The Wall Street Journal hits McDaniel on his "mamacita" comments
• Buzzfeed posts McDaniel's comments on the libertarian platform ("free hookers and blow for everybody")
• Buzzfeed again unveils new McDaniel comments, this time on Muslims, homosexuals, and poverty

Other media outlets began publishing the comments, and Thad Cochran's camp immediately piled on, emailing supporters links to those posts.  MSGOP Chairman Joe Nosef then made some comments on MSNBC about Chris McDaniel being the keynote speaker for an event put on by an avowed white supremacist.  That, in turn, lead the Mississippi Tea Party to demand Joe Nosef resign his chairmanship.  

Ain't this fun?

Oh, sweet Jesus. What on Earth is THIS, Chris McDaniel?

"I dreamt that the Boomers wanted Thad Cochran to come home, too."

h/t Jackson Jambalaya

Yallpolitics catches Sen. Chris McDaniel "palling around" with racists

See for yourself right here in this post by Alan Lange over on YallPolitics.com.

Do you just love a good primary?

Top Mississippi Republican Wants More Federal Spending

At a hearing with the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Republican Sen. Roger Wicker expressed his frustration that Mississippi does not receive its fair share of federal government spending from the EPA to comply with guidelines set by the agency.

The Southeast—the region that the Mississippi Republican senator calls home—has 20 percent of the nation's people. But when it comes time for the administration to dole out cash for a clean-air program, the Southeast only gets 12 percent of the program's funding, Wicker said.

And so, when Environmental Protection Agency head Gina McCarthy came before Congress to testify Wednesday, Wicker finally got a chance to vent his frustration. "How can EPA continue to develop strict new rules and standards while at the same time limiting access to resources for the states to get their fair share?," Wicker asked.

Grilling administration witnesses is standard fare for opposition party senators, but this time, Wicker's interrogation didn't go as planned.

Asked why the administration is giving EPA the short end of the stick, McCarthy's answer was simple: Because you are making us do it that way.

First, Wicker seemed surprised by the response of the Administrator. As we have noted, Wicker has been in Congress for nearly 20 years. It is mind blowing that he feigns outrage over a question it has taken him 20 years to ask.

Second, a recent report shows that Mississippi receives over $3.00 for every $1.00 paid in income taxes. That accounts for roughly 55 percent of our state's budget! For all the talk that our state's Republican leaders give about not spending money we do not have, they sure seem determined to ignore their own advice at every opportunity.

This is a prime example of the debate that is currently being waged between Wicker's colleague Sen. Thad Cochran and state Sen. Chris McDaniel. Wicker seems to be arguing McDaniel's case for him.

If we are to read between the lines of Sen. Wicker's comments, the Mississippi Tea Party should be outraged that Wicker seems be abandoning his conservative values by asking for more EPA federal spending in the state. I can see it now: "Tea Party State Senator Challenges Roger Wicker in 2018. Hilarity Ensues."

Repeat after me: M-I-Crooked Letter-Crooked Letter-I...

This week, The Club for Growth began doubling down their efforts in the race to buy Mississippi's Senate seat. An email that went out to its supporters in our state, suggested that Democratic candidate Travis Childers had no chance in the general election, and that McDaniel would breeze to victory if he can overcome Senator Cochran.

In the email, The Club for Growth's President Chris Chocola wrote:

"Dear  ____,

The Mississippi Senate race just got heated.

Not only is Thad Cochran up on air running ads that paint a rose colored glasses view of his SIX TERMS in office – but a pro-Cochran SuperPac has placed a major ad buy launching false and vicious attacks at Club-PAC endorsed Chris McDaniel.

With the June 3^rd primary less than 3 months away – The. Race. Is. On.

And Chris McDaniel urgently needs your help! (link removed by Cottonmouth to spare you the click)

Mississippi is so firmly Republican that there is next to no chance Republicans lose this seat to Democrats.  It’s about as safe a Senate race for Republicans as you’ll find this cycle.

Which means there is absolutely NO reason why Missippians – or Americans – should have to settle for a Senator who boasts an anemic 67% on the Club for Growth’s Congressional Scorecard.  And with just a 56% in 2013 – Thad Cochran is actually getting worse!"

Chris Chocola, seemingly the new authority on Mississippi, gave Congressman Childers no shot, and then misspelled "Mississippians."

Perhaps he's about as much of an expert on Mississippi as he is word processing skills.

Happening Now: McDaniel Visits Women's Health Clinic

Happening now: US Senate candidate and state Senator Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville) is greeting supporters outside of the Women's Health Organization in Jackson. 

I see one of his biggest supporters is in the crowd.