ANALYSIS OF FLOWERS SENATE MAP: Not a perfect plan, but not awful like the House map

After reviewing the Senate redistricting plan proposed by Sen. Merle Flowers (R - Southaven), I've got to say that it's not that bad of a map.  In fact, by comparison, this makes the House map created by Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) look even worse.  The Flowers map shows that it is possible to redistrict the state without re-segregating it as Denny did.

Here are some notes:

• 33 of the 52 Senate districts lost African-American voting population when the state as a whole saw its African-American population increase by 0.7%
• That being said, only 4 districts saw any significant decrease in BVAP (black voting-age population), and those districts were 2, 14, 33, and 47.
• Depending on the definition of "districts of influence" one chooses, the number of lost districts of influence is either 2 or 4.  
• If a district of influence is one which has a BVAP of 25%-50%, then there are 15 districts of influence out of 52 under this map.  That's opposed to the House map, which has 19 out of 122. 
• The number of majority minority districts increases by 2 under the Flowers map.
• The reduction of the number of split precincts to 14 is pretty impressive.
• Sen. Bill Stone (D - Ashland) is the only Senator I see that's getting screwed pretty hard.  His district, District 2, is being moved to DeSoto County, and he's being thrown into Sen. Nicky Browning's (D - Pontotoc) district.

I don't think you'll see much rancor over this plan, but we'll see.  The plan is before the Senate right now.

Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) closes on the Denny map

Rep. Bill Denny: It's good that we can come to this podium and vent.  When I came here in the late 80s, we'd just completed redistricting.  The Speaker told me he couldn't get anyone to be chairman of redistricting.  I told that Speaker that he was making a terrible mistake in asking people to be chairman of redistricting and walked out.  The Speaker then told him he was to be chairman of redistricting.  Denies taking party into account when drawing the lines. Says the Denny map will pass Voting Rights Act muster.  Says nobody knows whether or not we'll run again, so you shouldn't base your vote on that.

Rep. Bill Denny speaks against the Scott plan

Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) asks people to vote against the Scott map because it "just appeared on the scene." (As opposed to his map, which is 24 hours old.)

Prior to the Motion to Table the Denny map, Rep. Bennett Malone questioned Rep. Denny about the Denny plan

Prior to the motion to table, Rep. Bennett Malone shared a story in which Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) blocked him from entering the room where the map was being drawn.  Denny disagreed, but it was interesting to see Rep. Malone angry at a Republican for a change.

Rep. Robert Huddleston questions Rep. Bill Denny about Denny map

Rep. Robert Huddleston (D - Sumner) questioned Denny (R - Jackson) about the inclusion of prison population in the population numbers.  Rep. Huddleston has several prisons in his district, which would have affected the way the lines were drawn.  Huddleston has been paired with Rep. Tommy Taylor (R - Cleveland).

Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) keeps saying that Hinds County lost 22,000 people in the last decade. That's not what the Census Bureau says.

Apparently in an effort to justify his efforts to take a seat away from Hinds County, Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) keeps saying that Hind County lost 22,000 residents over the last decade.  That's not true, according to the census.   According the US Census Bureau, the 2000 population of Hinds County was 250,800.  The 2010 population is 245,285.  This is a decline of 5,542, or 2%.

Denny could have kept all of Hinds County's districts if he wanted to.

Rep. Earle Banks (D - Jackson) questions Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) about the Denny map

Rep. Banks says that Rep. Denny told him that the districts could not be changed after Banks saw them last.  Denny denies saying that.

Rep. Banks disagrees with Denny's frequent statement that Hinds County lost 22,000 residents since 2000.  Banks says Hinds has lost only 2% of its population.  Some research reveals that Banks is correct: According the US Census Bureau, the 2000 population of Hinds County was 250,800.  The 2010 population is 245,285.  This is a decline of 2%.

So a loss of 5,000 people means a loss of a seat for Hinds County?  That's BS and Denny knows it.

Rep. Bryant Clark (D - Pickens) questions Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) about the Denny map

Rep. Bryant Clark (D - Pickens) is questioning Denny hard about the lack of seats that are between 25% and 50% BVAP.  Denny's plan has only 4 districts between 25% and 50% BVAP, and only 1 district between 35% and 50% BVAP.  (This is what I meant by Denny resegregating the state through redistricting.)  Denny just says that he relies on counsel that Denny map complies with the VRA.

Get your popcorn ready: Rep. Steve Holland (D - Plantersville) begins to question Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) about his map

Rep. Holland starts off by talking about how he and Denny have been good friends for a long time.  Holland says that he wrote Denny a letter back on March 16th asking to give input on the Denny map.  Denny admits he did not let Holland give input on the map.

Holland then begins to ask Denny about communities of interest and the changes to Holland's district.  Holland's district has remained fairly the same geographically for the last 40 years, according to Holland.  Holland then finishes with a question about Snowden's district moving from a majority minority district to a district that has less than 20% BVAP.

No big fireworks from Holland.

Rep. Kevin Horan (D - Grenada) questions Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) about the Denny map

Rep. Horan begins: "I want to take this opportunity to introduce myself.  I'm Rep. Kevin Horan of Grenada."  Clear indication that Rep. Horan was not one of the "110" members who supposedly had input on how the Denny map would look.

***WORK BREAK***

Denny admits that the citizens of Horan's district have been denied access to the redistricting process because Denny wouldn't talk to Horan about the process.

Rep. Willie Perkins (D - Greenwood) questions Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) about the Denny redistricting map

Rep. Perkins (D - Greenwood) is now questioning Rep. Denny (R - Jackson) about the Denny map.  Perkins asks first about cracking and packing.  (Read about those terms here.)  Perkins then moves on to ask Denny about the community redistricting meetings across the state in preparation for last year's redistricting efforts and the standards adopted by the committee this year.  Asks Denny whether or not the committee adopted as one of its standards not to employ packing and cracking.  Denny says he believes the committee did.

Perkins is now asking Denny if he remembers Republicans said last year that they were fine with their individual districts, but voted against the map as a whole because they had not seen it before it was presented to the committee.  Denny says "That was last year."  (Denny earlier admitted that no one saw the map as a whole until he printed it out last Friday.  Denny of course then went on to change the districts over the weekend.)

Perkins asks Denny if the prison populations were counted in drawing the districts.  Denny says they were.  That's rich, since they can't vote.

Perkins then begins to hit Denny with individual non-majority minority districts in which the minority voting age population was reduced substantially.  Denny says he did that to prevent retrogression.

Rep. Ed Blackmon (D - Canton) begins questioning Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) about the Denny map

Rep. Blackmon begins questioning Rep. Denny by talking about history, and how redistricting has played a role in advancing minority representation over the years.  Blackmon says that redistricting has increased the number of minorities in the House from 5 to 37.

Blackmon then gets Denny to admit that the party split in the House is really just the Regular Democrats and the Loyalist Democrats shuffling amongst the parties.  That's a pretty strong admission by Denny.

Blackmon then starts talking about the packed districts.  Denny says he decreased the packing in districts.  Blackmon says there is no longer a need for packed districts in order to elect minorities.  Denny agrees.

Blackmon is doing a great job on the packing issue, to which Denny is wide open and vulnerable.  Blackmon says you could unpack many of the majority minority districts and increase minority voting power across the state.  He's absolutely right.

Blackmon then asks Denny whether or not the experts retained by Denny could unpack the majority minority districts and better preserve communities of interests and compactness.  Denny says that's a hypothetical.

Rep. Kelvin Buck (D - Holly Springs) begins to question Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) about the Denny plan

Rep. Kelvin Buck (D - Holly Springs) has started questioning Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) about Denny's redistricting plan.  He is the first member of the Legislative Black Caucus to address Denny.

Buck asks Denny whether or not it is important to consider anything other than BVAP (black voting age population) when drawing majority minority districts.  Denny responds by saying that the committee took into account the Obama and Dupree voting patterns, which seems out of place here.

Buck then says that someone fighting for or against a plan isn't necessarily fighting for his or her own survival, but rather for a district that contains similar communities of interests.

Buck then points out that none of the attorneys or experts used by Denny in drawing the Denny map were African-American.  Denny says that Rep. Ed Blackmon (D - Canton) had a lot of input in the Denny map.

Rep. Cecil Brown (D - Jackson) continues to question Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) about the Denny map

Brown asks Denny about pairs.  Denny says that there are 2 Republican vs. Republican pairs.  Brown corrects him, and Denny admits that there are no Republican vs. Republican pairs, that there are 3 Democrat vs. Democrat pairs, and 2 Republican vs. Democrat pairs.  The Democrat vs. Democrat pairs are all three white vs. white.  Denny says he didn't consider that at all.  (If there's a bigger lie on the floor today, I'll be surprised.)

Brown then turns to Harrison County, where there are a substantial number of split precincts.  Brown asks why.  Denny says that that's what he had to do to fit it in the plan.

Rep. Cecil Brown (D - Jackson) begins questioning of Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson)

Rep. Cecil Brown (D - Jackson) asks Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) how many white Democrats participated in drawing the Denny map.  Denny guessed 5.  Denny later said he wouldn't have any record of who those people were.

Denny is having a hard time not interrupting members asking questions.

Denny says the committee was not "substantially" different last year.  I guess it's all what you mean by the word "substantial."

Denny says the subcommittee first saw the map when it was printed out.

Denny says District 66 (Brown's current district) has been moved 15 or so miles away, outside the city of Jackson and into rural Hinds County.  Denny then says that Brown's current district is 57% black.  Under the Denny map, a good number of Jackson precincts would go into Denny's district, which is 26% black.  (This is called "bleaching," and you can read about it here.)

Denny's proposed 64 can be seen here.

Denny then refuses to answer any further questions about individual districts.

Brown then turns his sights on Rep. Greg Snowden's (R - Meridian) district.  Rep. Snowden represents a 51% majority black district.  Under the Denny map, Snowden's district would be reduced to 17% black voting age population.

Rep. Tom Miles (D - Forest) begins questioning of Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson)

Rep. Tom Miles is confronting Rep. Denny about Denny giving him the run-around when Miles tried to discuss how his district would be drawn.  By refusing to listen to Miles about his district, he's refusing to listen to concerns about the communities of interest in East Central Mississippi.

Miles then says Denny is leaving out rural Mississippi.  Denny asks how Miles could come to that conclusion.  Miles asks why Denny would split a county that had been whole for years (Scott County).  Miles' district suffers mightily under the Denny plan, going from a compact district with similar communities of interest to a stratified mess.

Oh, boy: Denny plan would REDUCE number of majority black districts

In a move that's going to cause some trouble in the federal courts, Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) has proposed a map that would decrease by one the number of majority black House districts.  A review of the Denny plan summary shows that his plan provides for 42 majority black districts.  The current map has 43.

Denny plan summary

Current map summary

***UPDATE*** - I counted Districts 71 & 83 twice, so the above is incorrect.  Denny's map does increase the number of majority minority districts by 1.

***BREAKING*** - REVIEW OF DENNY PLAN SHOWS EFFORT TO SEGREGATE VOTERS BY DISTRICT

A review of the Denny plan summary reveals a shocking attempt by Republicans to divide Mississippians along racial lines. Virtually all of the 122 districts drawn by Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) are highly segregated by race.

Here's the plan summary:

Denny Plan Summary

Quick and dirty analysis of Denny maps

It's hard to tell too much from the photos in this post, but here's what I've gathered so far:

1. It looks as though DeSoto County would add two more representatives under the Denny plan, which would put them at 10.
2. District 122, currently represented by Rep. David Baria (D - Bay St. Louis), exploded in size, taking over a good portion of freshman Rep. Timmy Ladner's (R - Poplarville) territory.
3. Rep. Cecil Brown's District 66 was taken out of Jackson and pushed into southern Hinds County.
4. Rep. Brad Oberhausen's District 73 has been shipped to Madison County.
5. This map is substantially different than the "One Percent" plan the Republicans pushed last year as being the best and most fair plan.  Their hypocrisy knows no bounds.

***PICTURES OF DENNY REDISTRICTING MAP***

Here they are.  I'll start to analyze them shortly.