GOP tax cut would cost more than effort to save hospitals

For years now, Gov. Phil Bryant (R - Mississippi) has refused to adopt the new method of reimbursing hospitals for care provided to those without insurance and unable to pay.  This has driven a good number of our Mississippi hospitals to the brink of closure, and some straight into bankruptcy.  The reason he always gives is "we can't afford it."

Well, here's a comparison of the cost of the tax cut plan before the House today and the costs associated with the new method of hospital reimbursement:

2016
Tax Cut: $12.3M
Hospital Reimbursement: $29M

2017
Tax Cut: $56.2M
Hospital Reimbursement: $94M

2018
Tax Cut: $108.6M
Hospital Reimbursement: $108M

2019
Tax Cut: $166.8
Hospital Reimbursement: $124M

2020
Tax Cut: $233.7M
Hospital Reimbursement: $167M

Total cost from 2016-2020:
Tax Cut: $577.6M
Hospital Reimbursement: $522M

(Source: Lt. Governor’s office tax cut data and  “An Economic Analysis of the State and Local Impact

of Medicaid Expansion in Mississippi” David Becker and Michael Morrisey, November 2013)

Now, I may be a graduate of our chronically underfunded Mississippi public schools, but even I can understand when I'm being sold a bill of goods.

GAME ON

The die has been cast in the race for control of the Mississippi House of Representatives.  Here are the numbers:

Total seats:  122
Contested seats:  41
Uncontested seats:  81

Uncontested Democratic seats:  40
Uncontested Republican seats:  41

Contested Republican seats:  25
Contested Democratic seats: 10
Contested open seats:  6

The magic number for control of the House is 62.  That means that if Democrats hold serve in their 10 seats (and they likely will), Democrats only have to win 12 of the 31 remaining seats.

The House is in play, ladies and gentlemen.

MS voters like Gov. Bryant, but not enough to reelect him, poll shows

GarinHartYang Research Group conducted a poll last week of Mississippi voters, focused on this year's races for Attorney General and Governor.  I outlined the results regarding the Attorney General's race in a previous post, so let's now turn our attention to the results concerning Gov. Phil Bryant.

As this poll was mainly focused on the Attorney General's race, I don't have as much information from the poll on the Governor's race.  What I do have, though, is interesting, and tracks with what internal Democratic polls have found for the past 2 years.

Approval rating

Gov. Bryant is a popular guy.  66% of Mississippians approve of him. But....

Reelection support

While Mississippians might like Gov. Bryant as a person, we are not very enthusiastic about having him serve as governor for another 4 years.  Where nearly 60% of Mississippians want to reelect AG Jim Hood, only 45% of Mississippians want Gov. Bryant to serve another term. Importantly, only 33% of independents would vote to reelect Bryant.  (By contrast, 58% of independents would vote to reelect Hood.)

But who is the opponent?

At this moment, there is no Democrat qualified to run for governor against Phil Bryant.  That is expected to change within the next few days, however. It will be interesting to see how these numbers move after that announcement, and after the campaign begins in earnest.

Poll shows AG Hood to be nearly unbeatable

The GarinHartYang Research Group completed a survey of Mississippi voters last week, and just recently shared their findings regarding this year's race for Attorney General and Governor.

The gubernatorial findings will follow in a second post, but here's what they found regarding Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood:

Approval ratings

• Overall, Hood has a 70% approval rating, and a 14% disapproval rating
• Hood's approval rating among Democrats is 70%
• Hood's approval rating among independents is 64%
• Hood's approval rating among Republicans is 72%

Reelection support

• Nearly 3 of 5 Mississippi voters say they will vote to reelect Hood
• Only 20% of Mississippi voters say they would vote to elect a Republican as AG
• Among Republican voters, 41% of them would vote for Hood, while only 36% would vote for a Republican

Hypothetical race against State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville)

• Chris McDaniel has substantial name ID at 78%
• In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with McDaniel, Hood has a 62% to 27% lead

Another North Mississippi Legislative Challenger Emerges

Justin Cluck, an Oxford resident and Marshall County attorney has launched his bid to run for District 13 Representative.

Cluck has been active in local politics for years, and is a strong candidate for a district that spans 4 counties. He'll likely be challenging Rep. Steve Massengill in the general election. Below is Cluck's release:

Justin Cluck Announces Campaign for District 13 Representative

Says Mississippi’s Future Depends on Strong Public Education

(Jackson) – Monday afternoon, North Mississippi attorney Justin Cluck announced his candidacy for District 13 legislature. Citing the opportunities he received as a product of public schools, Cluck recognized the necessity for a renewed commitment in the legislature.

“Three years ago my wife, Cary, and I were blessed with the birth of our son, Jennings. Because Cary and I both graduated from public schools and universities, we understand the importance of providing an outstanding public education for Jennings when he starts kindergarten….we were recently shocked and dismayed by the actions of the legislators of our district when they decided to blindly follow party lines by voting against Mississippi’s working families and the 200,000 citizens of this state who signed the ‘Better Schools, Better Jobs’ petition,” Cluck said in a statement.

District 13 stretches through Benton, Lafayette, Marshall and Union Counties, and is currently represented by Rep. Steve Massengill (R-Hickory Flat), though Cluck insists this is about more than party politics.

Said Cluck, “Our children’s education is not a partisan issue and it should not matter which party you identify with.  We should all work together to transcend party lines and to guarantee our children’s future is priority number one.“

####

The 12 grades that prove why Mississippi's school system is a wreck

Last night, Gov. Phil Bryant made a big deal about Mississippi being ranked 9th in the nation in preschool enrollment, a stat he pulled from Education Week magazine's state report cards.

Of course, there's a lot that he didn't tell you about Education Week's evaluation of the Mississippi education system, and what he didn't tell you explains why our public schools are in such bad shape.

So let's take a look at some of Mississippi's grades from Education Week that Gov. Phil Bryant didn't share with you last night.

First, let's look at how we are doing funding-wise:

• Spending: F (48.4) !!!!!!!!
• Building & supporting capacity: F (56.7)
• School Finance: D (66.1)

Now, you know where Education Week says we are doing a great job? Accountability!

• Standards, Assessments, & Accountability: A (92.8)
• Standards: A (100.0)
• School accountability: A (100.0)

So when you have plenty of accountability, but no funding, what does that get you?

• Chance for Success: D+ (68.9)
• The Teaching Profession: D (66.5)
• Adult outcomes: D+ (68.2)
• College readiness: D- (60.0)
• K-12 Achievement: F (56.6)

How much longer are we going to have to wait until we elect leaders who understand the very simple concept that schools require adequate funding in order to teach our children?

Remember, we choose these leaders, Mississippi.

The big thing Gov. Phil Bryant hid from you in last night's State of the State

Last night, Gov. Phil Bryant made a big deal about an Education Week ranking that had Mississippi ranked 9th in the nation in preschool enrollment.

That's a good thing. But what else does Education Week say about Mississippi's public education system under Gov. Phil Bryant?

In its most recent review of state education systems across the nation, Education Week gave Mississippi an overall C- grade. Well, that's just barely below average, right?

No.

The only states to score lower than Mississippi were Idaho, Nevada, and South Dakota, and they only did so barely. That means that according to Education Week, we have the 4th worst education system in America. (You have to register to view that article, but it's free.)

To borrow a phrase: And now you know the rest of the story.....

The Democratic Response to the 2015 State of the State

Here's the Democratic Response to the 2015 State of the State address:

If you didn't believe me before about the failure to expand Medicaid, maybe you will now

Southwest Regional Medical Center in McComb let five of its doctors go this past week.  In an AP interview, its CEO, Norman Price, said what I've been saying all along:

"The Affordable Care Act will force the acute care delivery system to evolve to accommodate a new reimbursement reality. As a result of the Affordable Care Act, the non-expansion of Medicaid will have the effect of over-running the emergency departments with non-paying patients. The inevitable cuts and changes will not be popular nor easy to accomplish. However, all will be necessary in order to move this medical center forward into the new Affordable Care Act world." (Emphasis added.)

And remember those DSH payments I've mentioned before (here, here, here, here, here, here and here)?

"We know we're going to be cut $8 million by the federal government, and we also know we're going to be cut 2% by Medicaid. That's going to equate to about $8.5 million to $9 million," Price said. 

The $8 million refers to the amount of money the hospital receives per year for taking on a disproportionate share of patients who are on Medicare or Medicaid.

DSH stands for "disproportionate share hospital".  The DSH program was established to give financial help to hospitals that provide care for an inordinate number of indigent patients.  As you can imagine, Mississippi hospitals are pretty dependent upon payments from the DSH program.  Under the Affordable Care Act, which is the law of the land regardless of how you feel about it, DSH payments are being severely restricted.  Why? Because patients that were causing hospitals to get DSH payments in the past were supposed to be covered by Medicaid expansion.  A Medicaid expansion, mind you, funded almost entirely by the federal government, not the state.

So as our Governor and his cohorts in the Legislature keep whistlin' Dixie, our health care system is burning to the ground.  

"Political Odd Couple" on SuperTalk right now

Senators Kenny Wayne Jones (D - Canton) and Will Longwitz (R - Madison) are on the JT Show. Should be a rare good moment on state-funded SuperTalk radio. Could this be an attempt at moderation by Telesouth Broadcasting, the owner of SuperTalk?

Legislative session ends

Yesterday around 3:00 pm, the 2012 regular session of the Mississippi Legislature came to an end.

There still exists a possibility of a special session to address charter school legislation, which failed to pass this session. I doubt, however, that one will be called.

SENATE PASSES HOUSE REDISTRICTING MAP

In a showing that the gentleman's agreement is now back in place under Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R), there was no debate over the House plan whatsoever in the Senate.

***BREAKING*** - SENATE MOVING TO HOUSE REDISTRICTING MAP

Sen. Merle Flowers (R - Southaven) is presenting it to the Senate now.

***BREAKING** - SENATE PASSES FLOWERS MAP 46-5

Vote report to come soon.

ANALYSIS OF FLOWERS SENATE MAP: Not a perfect plan, but not awful like the House map

After reviewing the Senate redistricting plan proposed by Sen. Merle Flowers (R - Southaven), I've got to say that it's not that bad of a map.  In fact, by comparison, this makes the House map created by Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) look even worse.  The Flowers map shows that it is possible to redistrict the state without re-segregating it as Denny did.

Here are some notes:

• 33 of the 52 Senate districts lost African-American voting population when the state as a whole saw its African-American population increase by 0.7%
• That being said, only 4 districts saw any significant decrease in BVAP (black voting-age population), and those districts were 2, 14, 33, and 47.
• Depending on the definition of "districts of influence" one chooses, the number of lost districts of influence is either 2 or 4.  
• If a district of influence is one which has a BVAP of 25%-50%, then there are 15 districts of influence out of 52 under this map.  That's opposed to the House map, which has 19 out of 122. 
• The number of majority minority districts increases by 2 under the Flowers map.
• The reduction of the number of split precincts to 14 is pretty impressive.
• Sen. Bill Stone (D - Ashland) is the only Senator I see that's getting screwed pretty hard.  His district, District 2, is being moved to DeSoto County, and he's being thrown into Sen. Nicky Browning's (D - Pontotoc) district.

I don't think you'll see much rancor over this plan, but we'll see.  The plan is before the Senate right now.

HERE IT IS: The proposed Senate redistricting plan

Here is the map, followed by the summary.  Click on these if you want a bigger version to look at:

Flowers Senate Map



Flowers Plan Summary

***BREAKING*** - Senate redistricting map to be revealed at 4:00 p.m.

The Senate redistricting plan will be unveiled this afternoon at 4:00 p.m.  Furthermore, according to sources, all senators will be allowed to look at the map prior to it being released this afternoon.  This is, of course, in contrast to how the Republican House leadership handled the unveiling of their redistricting map, with Rep. Bill Denny (R - Jackson) ripping copies of the plans out of people's hands.

We'll see how Sen. Merle Flowers (R - Southaven) drew the maps shortly....

The Senate roll call vote on the Workers Compensation Destruction Bill

Here's how they voted yesterday on the bill that's about as bad for Mississippians as it can get:  http://billstatus.ls.state.ms.us/2012/pdf/votes/senate/1190017.pdf

Senate passes Workers Compensation Destruction Bill 31-15

That's it. The Workers Compensation Destruction Bill is off to Gov. Phil Bryant (R) for his signature.

This post is brought to you by Travis Tritt.  The Lord better have mercy on the working man, because the Republicans they just elected to the run the state sure as hell don't.


 

Workers Compensation Destruction Bill now being debated by the Senate

As outlined earlier here today, the Workers Compensation Destruction Bill is a nightmare for Mississippians who have to work for a living. The Republican-run House didn't care. The Senate now has the bill before them. We'll see if they care about working Mississippians. (My money's not on "no", but on "of course not".)