So what's going to happen tomorrow? (Part 1)

I'm hearing all sorts of things from inside of camps on all sides. I'm going to post statewide and countywide predictions in Part 1, Senate predictions in Part 2, and House predictions in Part 3. Here's what I'm deciphering in statewide and county races:

Governor

In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Johnny DuPree appears to be edging out Bill Luckett, but I expect it to be pretty tight.

On the Republican side, Phil Bryant is going to do well, and will get close to the 50% +1 he'll need to avoid a runoff. Dave Dennis will likely be in the runoff with Bryant. How that runoff plays out is still a very open question.

Lt. Governor

The Republican race is the entire race, thanks to a big Democratic name backing out at the last minute before the qualifying deadline. The battle between Tate Reeves and Billy Hewes has gotten very nasty, and I believe that's because internal polls from both camps show this thing being "tighter than Dick's hatband," to quote an old saying. I believe Reeves will pull this out, but the repeated predictions of a blowout are no longer any good.

Treasurer

We know the Democrat in the race is Ocean Springs Mayor Connie Moran. The other side comes down to Lucien Smith, Lee Yancey, and Lynn Fitch. This one is headed for a runoff. I can't predict much other than I believe Smith will be in the runoff with one of the other two. Fitch's Mike Huckabee ad may be the bump she needs to get in.

Ag Commissioner

The Republican primary between Republicans Max Phillips, Cindy Hyde-Smith, and Dannie Reed has been somewhat under the radar. Max Phillips has done a pretty good job getting his name out there, as has Hyde-Smith. I think they'll be in a runoff.

Hinds County Sheriff

The Democratic primary race between incumbent Sheriff Malcolm McMillin and Tyrone Lewis is one the Lewis camp has tried to make about race. I don't think it's worked. McMillin's one of the more popular elected officials around. In fact, when he looked at making a run for statewide office this year, folks didn't exactly discount his chances. People like that don't lose their primaries. Unless, of course, there's a mass exodus in Hinds County to the Republican primary.

Hinds County Circuit Clerk

Barbara Dunn is being challenged by Vicki Mumford and Antonio Porter in the Democratic primary. Also one of the most popular elected officials around, Barbara Dunn ain't going anywhere. (Of course, with the caveat that increased participation in the Republican primary in Hinds County could hurt Dunn.)

Madison County Sheriff

This is the toughest one to predict, in my book. The race between Brad Harbour, Randy Tucker, Jimmy Houston and the guy trashing Hinds County has been quite lively. I'm predicting Tucker and Houston in a runoff.

Y'all Politics picks Tate Reeves over Billy Hewes, compares it to 2007 Bryant-Ross race

Alan Lange over at Y'all Politics has a post up predicting the statewide primary winners a week out from the election.  Lange predicts a 15-point win for Tate Reeves in the GOP Lt. Gov. primary, and in part bases his prediction on a comparison of the 2007 Republican Lt. Gov. primary.  In 2007, Phil Bryant was the twice-elected State Auditor, and Charlie Ross was a state senator from Rankin County.  Bryant won the nomination in a fairly contentious race, and Lange feels that the dynamic in 2011 between Reeves and Hewes is similar.

I agree that, on the surface, the Reeves-Hewes race seems almost identical to the Bryant-Ross race.  There is, however, a major difference.  The Republican apparatus that supported Bryant in 2007 is, for the most part, supporting Hewes this time around.  So the "team" whose statewide elected official candidate won last time is supporting the state senator this time, and that is a big, big difference.

That being said, I agree with Lange's prediction.  Hewes started way behind in name recognition, and I don't believe he has effectively caught up with Reeves.  It's very difficult to beat someone that every voting Mississippian has seen on a ballot at least once before.  Lange has Reeves winning by 15 points.  I'm not sure the margin will be that large, but put me down as believing the margin will be healthy.

Interesting post on the battle between Hewes and Reeves

Majority in Mississippi has a lengthy post up today about the feud between Republican Lt. Governor hopefuls Tate Reeves and Billy Hewes over the appointment of committee chairs and campaign contributions from sitting senators.  As you may recall, Hewes announced his choices for several key committee chairmen earlier this week.  For his part, Reeves has drawn a connection between the names announced by Hewes and contributions Hewes has received.  I recommend reading the Majority in Mississippi post in its entirety.

Want to know where candidates stand on education?

The Parents' Campaign has been collecting answers to a questionnaire sent out to statewide and legislative candidates earlier this year, and the results can be found here.  In addition, the Parents' Campaign keeps tabs on how often a legislator votes with them on education issues.  Those results can be found right alongside the questionnaire responses.

Interestingly, Sen. Michael Watson (R-Pascagoula), the man tabbed by Billy Hewes to be Senate Education Committee chairman should Hewes win the Lt. Governor's seat, has a 53% voting record, with a flat 0% for last year.  He also refused to return the questionnaire.  That is somewhat comparable to Sen. Videt Carmichael (R-Meridian), the current Senate Education Committee chairman, who has a 63% lifetime rating.  Carmichael also carded a "buckshot" last year.  If Hewes wins Lt. Governor, Carmichael will be his nominee for President pro tempore of the Senate.

Pull the car around...

The Sun-Herald's Crawdaddy blog has an interesting observation up today.  When their editorial board was interviewing the Republican Lt. Governor hopefuls, they noticed that Tate Reeves has a driver.  That's interesting because, as they point out, Reeves is railing against the number of state-owned vehicles.

Here's the "Bad, Bad Tate" ad

This is the ad I mentioned earlier today. To my knowledge, it's the first negative ad of the season.  An interesting decision by the Reeves camp to put it up on YouTube first.  It gave them the opportunity to name the video "Billy Hewes false negative campaign ad."

Hewes' "Bad, Bad, Tate" attack ad on Tate Reeves

Has anyone seen a copy of the new Billy Hewes attack ad against Tate Reeves? And does anyone know who produced it? I saw it for the first time last night, and it may be the most effective campaign commercial I've seen thus far. I'll link it as soon as I can find it.

Some thoughts on the Republican Lt. Gov. race

I've been asked repeatedly who I think will win the Republican Lieutenant Governor primary. 42 days out, this is more interesting than I believed it was a month ago. What follows is a summary of my thoughts on the race.

Tate Reeves continues to ride positive press based on his record-breaking cash on hand numbers. There's something under the surface, though, that is being a bit overlooked. Reeves has a massive lead in cash on hand due in large part to the money he had left over from 2007. In terms of the actual amount of money raised year-to-date, Reeves has outpaced Hewes 57.1% to 42.9%. That's significant, but it isn't nearly the same as the 70/30 lead Reeves enjoys in terms of cash on hand.

Which brings to mind something else: how much money is "enough" in terms of a statewide primary race? Money exists in politics to get your message out via media. Traditional outlets such as TV and radio are important, but not as important as they were even 4 years ago thanks to the increased saturation of the internet and social media. That being said, a candidate still has to be on cable and broadcast TV in order to stand any chance of winning a statewide primary. I would argue that both Hewes and Reeves will have enough money to be effective in terms of TV advertising going into August 2.

Taking that into account, one has to begin looking at the political alliances the respective candidates have formed. Reeves, aside from already being a statewide elected official, is the "Barbour" candidate in this election. He has developed close ties with the younger members of the Barbour clan, and will continue to rely upon their financial and vote-getting network going forward. Reeves is from Rankin County, which should be a benefit to him in the Republican primary, which is heavily influenced by Rankin votes. Reeves also recently received the endorsement of Sen. Merle Flowers (R-Southaven), which may significantly aid Reeves in DeSoto County, which is traditionally a large source of votes in the Republican primary.

Hewes, having served 5 terms in the Legislature, certainly has a base of support among other Republican senators (and almost certainly current Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant, though that may not ever be public). Furthermore, Hewes would presumably have a base along the Coast, which contributes its own large share of Republican primary votes. Here's where it gets interesting though. Five days ago, Hewes announced the support of two absolute giants in the Mississippi Republican Party, Billy Mounger and Billy Powell. If you'll think back to the 2008 Republican Congressional primary to replace Rep. Chip Pickering, you may recall that Powell and Mounger supported Gregg Harper, whom many viewed to be a longshot. Back then, all of the so-called "smart money" was on Charlie Ross and David Landrum. The support of Powell and Mounger delivered a long-established Republican political structure to Harper, surprising many folks. I would not be surprised at all if the Powell-Mounger endorsement of Hewes impacts this race in a large way.

So, in sum, my thoughts are that this race is in no way close to over, as many seem to think. Watch for Hewes to make a big run at this over the next 42 days..


*As an aside, it is interesting to look at this race in terms of the longstanding Delta/Jackson divide in the Mississippi Republican Party. This divide arose during the 1976 Republican presidential primary, with Billy Powell and Billy Mounger backing Ronald Reagan's insurgent campaign, and Clarke Reed of Greenville backing Gerald Ford. (Good post on this divide here.) One would typically think that the Delta candidate in this race would be Hewes, who hails from the more socially moderate Coast, and that Reeves would be the hometown darling of the Rankin County Republican power structure (which has traditionally followed the lead of Billy Powell). Whichever way this race turns out, there will be an interesting post mortem performed by someone. (I'm looking at you, Jere Nash and Andy Taggart.)

Motion to reconsider tabled; maps on their way to Senate now

Here we go. The maps are on their way to the Senate. Will Phil Bryant and Billy Hewes let them vote? We'll find out soon. The Senate starts their business at 10 a.m.

Clarion-Ledger: Let the Senate vote

The Clarion-Ledger has weighed in this morning with an editorial on the redistricting fight.  Placing the spotlight on Sen. Billy Hewes and Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant, the column calls on the two to end their stalling.

The resolution is expected to go to the Senate today, where it will be up to Bryant and Senate Rules Committee Chairman Billy Hewes to bring it up. Republican leaders contend it is unconstitutional because the name was changed from a "joint resolution" to a "concurrent resolution." Such semantical hair-splitting should be seen for what it is - another blocking tactic. Senators should be allowed to vote, up or down.

The C-L's right. Bryant and Hewes have stalled, delayed, blocked, and fought all they could throughout this, and to what end? To abdicate their duty to draw new maps? To display their inability to lead in full view of Republican primary voters?

The Lt. Gov. and Hewes, the Lt. Gov. hopeful, should let the Senate vote. Their stalling has led to a resolution of the splitting of Starkville, which was the most complained about feature of the old House map. They can declare a victory on that and finish their work. It's time.

A summary of what happened in the Senate redistricting skirmish today, and what it may mean

This morning, Sen. Hob Bryan (D - Amory) offered a new resolution containing the Burton Senate map, and moved that the Senate consider the resolution as a "committee of the whole."  By acting as a committee of the whole, the resolution would not be sent to committee, where the Burton map had been unsuccessful before.  It takes a 2/3rd's vote to go into a committee of the whole.

Sen. Billy Hewes (R-Biloxi) made an effort to prevent such a vote, and the Senate was hastily adjourned for a brief period, during which Republican senators met in Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant's office to figure out how to proceed. Sen. Bryan's maneuver apparently caught GOP senators and Lt. Gov. Bryant by surprise, and they needed to caucus to figure out their plan.

Upon returning, Sen. Bryan resumed his speech in favor of going into a committee of the whole by affirming the need to keep the Burton plan out of the hands of Lt. Gov. Bryant, who double-referred the Burton plan earlier in an effort to kill it.  Sen. Bryan said that never before in our state's history had a redistricting plan been double-referred.

Next, Sen. Bryan spoke of the Legislature's duty to complete redistricting, and he cited what an unnamed GOP senator had said.  Referring to the House's refusal to go to conference on the matter, this unnamed GOP senator allegedly said that the public would now blame the House, and that the Senate could "wash its hands of it."  Bryan reminded the floor of the origin of that phrase, and how history has treated that person.  (He was speaking of course, of Pontius Pilate.)

After the speech, the vote was held, and the motion to enter the committee of the whole failed, with 25 nays and 23 yeas.  Sens. Briggs Hopson (R-Vicksburg) and Terry Burton (R-Newton) voted in favor of entering the committee of the whole.

So here's what all of this may mean:

First, the Senate Republicans had the opportunity to send a plan back over to the full House, which would give their Republican brethren in the House the opportunity to address their concerns over the House map on the floor.  In effect, this would have restarted the legislative process that has died.  That means the Senate GOP can no longer "wash their hands" of the redistricting process.

Second, Sen. Bryan either knew of some possibility for compromise on the House side or wanted to at least leave the door open for some.  Hewes and Bryant slammed that door.

Third, the number of nay votes was interesting, and that's all I'll say about that.

***BREAKING*** House: Courts to handle redistricting if Senate does not concur

Word from the House is that if the Senate does not concur on JR 201, then the House will not appoint conferees. As obstructionist as Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant has become in this process, the conferees would no doubt be his foot soldiers Fillingane, McDaniel, and Hewes, who didn't even favor the plan the full Senate passed overwhelmingly. Going to conference with three individuals dead set against any reasonable House plan would be a fool's errand. Instead, a lawsuit will be filed next week in order to give the federal courts ample time to draw new districts before the June 1 deadline.

The reasoning behind this is that if the courts are going to draw the lines anyway, they might as well get started so that the lines will be complete by June 1. And why would the courts refuse to allow legislators to run in their current districts? The current districts are so malapportioned as to devastate the "one person one vote" principle. The smallest district, population-wise, is 13,000, while the largest is 55,000. There's no way the courts let an election under those circumstances go forward.

The net effect of going to court next week? The Legislature loses all control over redistricting, and new lines will be in place before June 1. That means that those legislators who think they are going to run this year in their current districts if conference is invited are mistaken. That would mean a certain end to the senatorial careers of Sen. Buck Clarke (R-Hollandale), Sen. Nolan Mettetal (R-Sardis), Sen. Briggs Hopson (R-Vicksburg), Sen. Ezell Lee (R-Picayune), and Sen. Lydia Chassaniol (R-Winona). There will certainly be other casualties as well.

Redistricting winners and losers thus far (***Updated to include more potential losers***)

Here's a breakdown of the redistricting winners and losers thus far:

Winners


House Democrats - They've succeeded in creating a plan that does not gift wrap the Speaker's race for Republicans, and that's a big win.

Sen. Terry Burton - He's shown enormous backbone in resisting efforts by Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant to take over the redistricting process.  People love a winner, and that's what Burton is.  By rebuffing the Lt. Gov., Burton has grown in stature in a Mississippi Republican Party that is quickly entering its "Post-Haley" era.

GOP gubernatorial candidate Dave Dennis - Watching Phil Bryant stumble through this process has to be similar to what Kirk Fordice felt when Pete Johnson fumbled away the Republican nomination in 1991.  I have a feeling Dennis is waiting in the wings as this play reaches its finale.  He wins no matter how this turns out.

GOP lieutenant governor candidate Tate Reeves - See Dave Dennis above, as Reeves' primary opponent, Sen. Billy Hewes, has been caught up in the mess as a Bryant lieutenant in the redistricting process.

Losers

House Republicans - They were on the record as having helped draw districts that they favored, and the majority of them stood ready to vote for the House consensus plan.  Last-minute arm twisting from the MSGOP (on behalf of Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant) put them in the uncomfortable position of voting against a plan they created and really liked.  Because most of them had planned to vote for the House consensus plan until the last minute, they had no alternative plan ready.  That led to the late entry of the Republican alternative that seemed to garner only halfhearted support.

Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant - Being on the losing side of a battle this highly publicized is embarrassing enough.  But losing it while you are the leader of the Republican Senate and engaged in a race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination is a few very large degrees different.  It was an utter failure of leadership, and not very Barbour-like in a party desperately searching for its next Barbour.  Bryant created a huge opening for Dave Dennis to exploit.  And make no mistake about it, there is no "win" left for Bryant at this point in the game.  Bryant either loses the vote in the Senate and the plans go into effect, or he forces the state to spend millions on new elections and court battles.  Not a great position for a fiscal conservative to put himself in. Especially in a battle he chose to fight.

Sen. Billy Hewes - See above, except Hewes loses a bit less, as Bryant is getting most of the airtime while this mess is going down.  He's therefore less likely to catch as much flak from GOP primary voters, but he'll still catch a good bit if he's part of the reason the state has to spend millions of extra dollars.  If Tate Reeves is on his game, Hewes could pay dearly for voting to invite conference.

Sen. Joey Fillingane - Fillingane led the charge for Bryant on this, and burned a few bridges along the way with senators who now hold more sway than he does.

Potential losers (Updated at 5:24 p.m.)


Sen. Buck Clarke (R-Hollandale), Sen. Nolan Mettetal (R-Sardis), Sen. Briggs Hopson (R-Vicksburg), Sen. Ezell Lee (R-Picayune), and Sen. Lydia Chassaniol (R-Winona) - If the Senate does not concur and courts wind up drawing the lines, it's very tough to imagine a situation in which these senators manage to make it back, either because they will wind up in majority minority districts or because their districts will move to another part of the state altogether. If the Senate does not concur, these folks will be heading home.