Was Mississippi's Fiscal Shape Better in the 90s?

Lt. Governor Tate Reeves attended a breakfast with Rankin County politicos this past Saturday and was invited to speak to the dozens of attendees, including the author of this article.

In his brief remarks, Reeves noted that Mississippi is in the "best fiscal shape we've been in since the mid-90s following the boom of the casino industry."  Let that sink in for a moment; the mid-90s.

Many readers of this blog know that Reeves was Treasurer of the state of Mississippi from 2004-2012.  Isn't it odd that he would not highlight his tenure as Treasurer as the years when we were in the best fiscal shape?

At last week's Neshoba County Fair, current state Treasurer Lynn Fitch allegedly began gathering support for a challenge to Reeves in the 2015 Republican primary.  It is no secret that there is no love lost between these two ambitious Republicans.  It started early in 2012 when Reeves and Fitch had a back and forth on who's to blame for the mismanagement of the MPACT program which resulted in an unfortunate enrollment freeze.  The most recent feud centered around Fitch being upset that Reeves killed her financial literacy bill in this year's legislative session.  With eight years of experience as Treasurer behind him, why Reeves killed a financial literacy bill is a question only he can answer.

It is puzzling that when the Lt. Governor had an opportunity to show his strength on the fiscal status of our state that he overlooked his own record in office and referred to a period of time roughly eight years before his name first appeared on a ballot.

BREAKING: MPACT PROGRAM SUSPENDED, UNDER AUDIT

From the front page of the MPACT college tuition savings program this morning:

State Treasurer Lynn Fitch (R) has suspended the MPACT program as it undergoes an audit. The program, a darling of former State Treasurer and now-Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) is apparently underwater and may cost the state millions of dollars.  The Clarion-Ledger put a Geoff Pender article up about three hours ago, and it has some staggering numbers.  From the article:

Based on current contracts maturing through 2018, Fitch said initial numbers show the program would need more than $94 million from the state to “make it whole” and keep it as it was running, and about $64 million if it were closed permanently.

Yikes.

So what's going to happen tomorrow? (Part 1)

I'm hearing all sorts of things from inside of camps on all sides. I'm going to post statewide and countywide predictions in Part 1, Senate predictions in Part 2, and House predictions in Part 3. Here's what I'm deciphering in statewide and county races:

Governor

In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Johnny DuPree appears to be edging out Bill Luckett, but I expect it to be pretty tight.

On the Republican side, Phil Bryant is going to do well, and will get close to the 50% +1 he'll need to avoid a runoff. Dave Dennis will likely be in the runoff with Bryant. How that runoff plays out is still a very open question.

Lt. Governor

The Republican race is the entire race, thanks to a big Democratic name backing out at the last minute before the qualifying deadline. The battle between Tate Reeves and Billy Hewes has gotten very nasty, and I believe that's because internal polls from both camps show this thing being "tighter than Dick's hatband," to quote an old saying. I believe Reeves will pull this out, but the repeated predictions of a blowout are no longer any good.

Treasurer

We know the Democrat in the race is Ocean Springs Mayor Connie Moran. The other side comes down to Lucien Smith, Lee Yancey, and Lynn Fitch. This one is headed for a runoff. I can't predict much other than I believe Smith will be in the runoff with one of the other two. Fitch's Mike Huckabee ad may be the bump she needs to get in.

Ag Commissioner

The Republican primary between Republicans Max Phillips, Cindy Hyde-Smith, and Dannie Reed has been somewhat under the radar. Max Phillips has done a pretty good job getting his name out there, as has Hyde-Smith. I think they'll be in a runoff.

Hinds County Sheriff

The Democratic primary race between incumbent Sheriff Malcolm McMillin and Tyrone Lewis is one the Lewis camp has tried to make about race. I don't think it's worked. McMillin's one of the more popular elected officials around. In fact, when he looked at making a run for statewide office this year, folks didn't exactly discount his chances. People like that don't lose their primaries. Unless, of course, there's a mass exodus in Hinds County to the Republican primary.

Hinds County Circuit Clerk

Barbara Dunn is being challenged by Vicki Mumford and Antonio Porter in the Democratic primary. Also one of the most popular elected officials around, Barbara Dunn ain't going anywhere. (Of course, with the caveat that increased participation in the Republican primary in Hinds County could hurt Dunn.)

Madison County Sheriff

This is the toughest one to predict, in my book. The race between Brad Harbour, Randy Tucker, Jimmy Houston and the guy trashing Hinds County has been quite lively. I'm predicting Tucker and Houston in a runoff.