So what's going to happen tomorrow? (Part 1)

I'm hearing all sorts of things from inside of camps on all sides. I'm going to post statewide and countywide predictions in Part 1, Senate predictions in Part 2, and House predictions in Part 3. Here's what I'm deciphering in statewide and county races:

Governor

In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Johnny DuPree appears to be edging out Bill Luckett, but I expect it to be pretty tight.

On the Republican side, Phil Bryant is going to do well, and will get close to the 50% +1 he'll need to avoid a runoff. Dave Dennis will likely be in the runoff with Bryant. How that runoff plays out is still a very open question.

Lt. Governor

The Republican race is the entire race, thanks to a big Democratic name backing out at the last minute before the qualifying deadline. The battle between Tate Reeves and Billy Hewes has gotten very nasty, and I believe that's because internal polls from both camps show this thing being "tighter than Dick's hatband," to quote an old saying. I believe Reeves will pull this out, but the repeated predictions of a blowout are no longer any good.

Treasurer

We know the Democrat in the race is Ocean Springs Mayor Connie Moran. The other side comes down to Lucien Smith, Lee Yancey, and Lynn Fitch. This one is headed for a runoff. I can't predict much other than I believe Smith will be in the runoff with one of the other two. Fitch's Mike Huckabee ad may be the bump she needs to get in.

Ag Commissioner

The Republican primary between Republicans Max Phillips, Cindy Hyde-Smith, and Dannie Reed has been somewhat under the radar. Max Phillips has done a pretty good job getting his name out there, as has Hyde-Smith. I think they'll be in a runoff.

Hinds County Sheriff

The Democratic primary race between incumbent Sheriff Malcolm McMillin and Tyrone Lewis is one the Lewis camp has tried to make about race. I don't think it's worked. McMillin's one of the more popular elected officials around. In fact, when he looked at making a run for statewide office this year, folks didn't exactly discount his chances. People like that don't lose their primaries. Unless, of course, there's a mass exodus in Hinds County to the Republican primary.

Hinds County Circuit Clerk

Barbara Dunn is being challenged by Vicki Mumford and Antonio Porter in the Democratic primary. Also one of the most popular elected officials around, Barbara Dunn ain't going anywhere. (Of course, with the caveat that increased participation in the Republican primary in Hinds County could hurt Dunn.)

Madison County Sheriff

This is the toughest one to predict, in my book. The race between Brad Harbour, Randy Tucker, Jimmy Houston and the guy trashing Hinds County has been quite lively. I'm predicting Tucker and Houston in a runoff.

Was the MBJ endorsement of Phil Bryant a joke?

You may have missed it the other day, but the Mississippi Business Journal endorsed Phil Bryant for Governor the other day.  But the way the endorsement was written calls its seriousness into question.  Here are a few excerpts:

His guffaws are numerous, but when all is said and done, he’s got the best boots.

I'm a boot guy myself, but what on Earth does that have to do with being Governor?

Little old ladies adore him when he comes and speaks to their clubs, and they trust him on a level that is more meaningful than their adoration of his gorgeous gray locks.

I don't even know what to say about this, other than it is very odd. Are we voting for Governor? Or who would win the male beauty pageant at the nursing home?

We think Bryant is the one candidate who is uniquely positioned to be a coalition builder.

Really? Was the author of this around during the redistricting mess? Bryant couldn't even keep his own party together.

Politics is the art of compromise and there has been far too little of that in the last eight years. We need to work together to move this state forward.

Wait a minute...Who has been in charge of the Senate for the last 4 years?

Barbour, a Republican, and Speaker of the House Billy McCoy, a Democrat, are, effectively, gone. Both did what they felt was best for the state, but they were more in to one-upsmanship than statesmanship. Barbour is going to tout all of his accomplishments as governor and Republicans are forever going to be looking back on the “the good-old days of Haley B.” But let’s look at the facts.

Mississippi was ranked at the bottom of every economic, education, and healthcare chart in the nation when he took over.

We are still there, and as this publication has pointed out, in some areas we are further down the list than where we started.

Again, who was in charge of the Senate for the last 4 years?

The MBJ is a good publication. They provide in-depth coverage of issues rarely found in the traditional media. But the way the endorsement of Phil Bryant was written makes me wonder if it was actually a joke. Considering the lack of affection from "business Republicans" towards Phil Bryant, it just might have been.

***BREAKING*** - Dave Dennis clobbers Phil Bryant on the Miss America contribution

According to a WLOX story that slipped by me late last week, Republican gubernatorial candidate Dave Dennis went after Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant at a Republican luncheon on the Coast over the Sam Haskell-Miss America mess.  (See Phil Bryant, Miss America, and $10,000 and the update to that story.).

This was the most pointed jab I've seen Dennis take, and he is essentially accusing Bryant of selling his support for a plan to raid the BP recovery fund in order to help a campaign contributor.  You can view the video here.  I'm surprised this isn't getting more attention.  Last Wednesday, Dave Dennis promised that he was going to become more aggressive in the race.  He wasn't kidding.

New Dave Dennis ad calls Phil Bryant a "20 year career politician"

Dave Dennis, who according to most pundits is the only member of the Republican gubernatorial field with a chance to disrupt Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant's march to the Republican nomination a week from tomorrow, has released a hard-hitting ad entitled "Two Words". Here it is:

The question, of course, is whether or not tough ads at this late date will have any effect on the outcome of the Republican GOP primary.  We'll know soon enough.

Madison County Journal endorses Dave Dennis for Governor...are we going to have a real Republican primary?

In a surprisingly early move, the Madison County Journal issued an editorial last Thursday endorsing Dave Dennis for Governor.  Is this the beginning of a real GOP primary?  For quite some time, Dennis has struggled to gain traction against Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant.  One has to wonder: is this the start of a real GOP primary fight?  I know that many establishment Republicans outside of Rankin County are hoping so.

Redistricting winners and losers thus far (***Updated to include more potential losers***)

Here's a breakdown of the redistricting winners and losers thus far:

Winners


House Democrats - They've succeeded in creating a plan that does not gift wrap the Speaker's race for Republicans, and that's a big win.

Sen. Terry Burton - He's shown enormous backbone in resisting efforts by Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant to take over the redistricting process.  People love a winner, and that's what Burton is.  By rebuffing the Lt. Gov., Burton has grown in stature in a Mississippi Republican Party that is quickly entering its "Post-Haley" era.

GOP gubernatorial candidate Dave Dennis - Watching Phil Bryant stumble through this process has to be similar to what Kirk Fordice felt when Pete Johnson fumbled away the Republican nomination in 1991.  I have a feeling Dennis is waiting in the wings as this play reaches its finale.  He wins no matter how this turns out.

GOP lieutenant governor candidate Tate Reeves - See Dave Dennis above, as Reeves' primary opponent, Sen. Billy Hewes, has been caught up in the mess as a Bryant lieutenant in the redistricting process.

Losers

House Republicans - They were on the record as having helped draw districts that they favored, and the majority of them stood ready to vote for the House consensus plan.  Last-minute arm twisting from the MSGOP (on behalf of Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant) put them in the uncomfortable position of voting against a plan they created and really liked.  Because most of them had planned to vote for the House consensus plan until the last minute, they had no alternative plan ready.  That led to the late entry of the Republican alternative that seemed to garner only halfhearted support.

Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant - Being on the losing side of a battle this highly publicized is embarrassing enough.  But losing it while you are the leader of the Republican Senate and engaged in a race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination is a few very large degrees different.  It was an utter failure of leadership, and not very Barbour-like in a party desperately searching for its next Barbour.  Bryant created a huge opening for Dave Dennis to exploit.  And make no mistake about it, there is no "win" left for Bryant at this point in the game.  Bryant either loses the vote in the Senate and the plans go into effect, or he forces the state to spend millions on new elections and court battles.  Not a great position for a fiscal conservative to put himself in. Especially in a battle he chose to fight.

Sen. Billy Hewes - See above, except Hewes loses a bit less, as Bryant is getting most of the airtime while this mess is going down.  He's therefore less likely to catch as much flak from GOP primary voters, but he'll still catch a good bit if he's part of the reason the state has to spend millions of extra dollars.  If Tate Reeves is on his game, Hewes could pay dearly for voting to invite conference.

Sen. Joey Fillingane - Fillingane led the charge for Bryant on this, and burned a few bridges along the way with senators who now hold more sway than he does.

Potential losers (Updated at 5:24 p.m.)


Sen. Buck Clarke (R-Hollandale), Sen. Nolan Mettetal (R-Sardis), Sen. Briggs Hopson (R-Vicksburg), Sen. Ezell Lee (R-Picayune), and Sen. Lydia Chassaniol (R-Winona) - If the Senate does not concur and courts wind up drawing the lines, it's very tough to imagine a situation in which these senators manage to make it back, either because they will wind up in majority minority districts or because their districts will move to another part of the state altogether. If the Senate does not concur, these folks will be heading home.

Mississippi Business Journal tees off on Phil Bryant

The long-dormant fault line in the Mississippi Republican Party between the social and fiscal conservatives will without doubt erupt during this year's gubernatorial primary between Phil Bryant and Dave Dennis.  Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant of Rankin County has been viewed with upturned noses by the Mississippi Republican Party's financial elite, who are lining up behind Dave Dennis, a wealthy Coast businessman.

The first public crack appeared yesterday, via the Mississippi Business Journal's blog:

Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant could make George W. Bush — often mocked for his verbal foibles — sound like the late wordsmith William F. Buckley Jr.

At the Mississippi Economic Council’s annual Hobnob two years ago, Bryant praised a fellow politician for being “a true phy-si-cal conservative.” He emphasized the word “physical,” which should have been “fiscal.”

 The post, entitled "Phil Bryant makes George W. Bush look like William F. Buckley, Jr.", goes on to quote Lt. Gov. Bryant as saying "We’re not targeting anyone based on their religion or their ethnics (sic)…" when talking about his anti-immigrant legislation.

Going to be an interesting 2011....