What can we learn from Precinct 2 in Oxford?

I'm getting reports via Twitter that Oxford's Precinct 2 has experienced a massive increase in turnout from 2007.  In the 2007 Democratic primary, there were just over 1000 votes cast in Oxford's Precinct 2. As of 5:00 p.m. today, there were 1,669 votes in the Democratic primary.  That is substantial, and may mean Luckett is going to run stronger than previously thought.

So what's going to happen tomorrow? (Part 1)

I'm hearing all sorts of things from inside of camps on all sides. I'm going to post statewide and countywide predictions in Part 1, Senate predictions in Part 2, and House predictions in Part 3. Here's what I'm deciphering in statewide and county races:

Governor

In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Johnny DuPree appears to be edging out Bill Luckett, but I expect it to be pretty tight.

On the Republican side, Phil Bryant is going to do well, and will get close to the 50% +1 he'll need to avoid a runoff. Dave Dennis will likely be in the runoff with Bryant. How that runoff plays out is still a very open question.

Lt. Governor

The Republican race is the entire race, thanks to a big Democratic name backing out at the last minute before the qualifying deadline. The battle between Tate Reeves and Billy Hewes has gotten very nasty, and I believe that's because internal polls from both camps show this thing being "tighter than Dick's hatband," to quote an old saying. I believe Reeves will pull this out, but the repeated predictions of a blowout are no longer any good.

Treasurer

We know the Democrat in the race is Ocean Springs Mayor Connie Moran. The other side comes down to Lucien Smith, Lee Yancey, and Lynn Fitch. This one is headed for a runoff. I can't predict much other than I believe Smith will be in the runoff with one of the other two. Fitch's Mike Huckabee ad may be the bump she needs to get in.

Ag Commissioner

The Republican primary between Republicans Max Phillips, Cindy Hyde-Smith, and Dannie Reed has been somewhat under the radar. Max Phillips has done a pretty good job getting his name out there, as has Hyde-Smith. I think they'll be in a runoff.

Hinds County Sheriff

The Democratic primary race between incumbent Sheriff Malcolm McMillin and Tyrone Lewis is one the Lewis camp has tried to make about race. I don't think it's worked. McMillin's one of the more popular elected officials around. In fact, when he looked at making a run for statewide office this year, folks didn't exactly discount his chances. People like that don't lose their primaries. Unless, of course, there's a mass exodus in Hinds County to the Republican primary.

Hinds County Circuit Clerk

Barbara Dunn is being challenged by Vicki Mumford and Antonio Porter in the Democratic primary. Also one of the most popular elected officials around, Barbara Dunn ain't going anywhere. (Of course, with the caveat that increased participation in the Republican primary in Hinds County could hurt Dunn.)

Madison County Sheriff

This is the toughest one to predict, in my book. The race between Brad Harbour, Randy Tucker, Jimmy Houston and the guy trashing Hinds County has been quite lively. I'm predicting Tucker and Houston in a runoff.

Bill Luckett's "Hammer in Hand" ad

Here is Bill Luckett's "Hammer in Hand" ad, with Morgan Freeman doing the voice over:

Luckett, a Clarksdale attorney, is seeking the Democratic nomination for Governor.

Funny press release from Bill Luckett this morning

About an hour ago, the Luckett for Governor campaign fired off a press release with the screaming, all caps headline: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: DUPREE ENDORSES LUCKETT FOR GOVERNOR.

At first glance, one might think that they mean Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, who is Luckett's opponent in the Democratic primary. Of course, they don't mean that at all, but instead are announcing the support of Marcus Dupree, the former Philadelphia high school football super recruit. Dupree was the focus of Willie Morris' book The Courting of Marcus Dupree and a recent ESPN 30 for 30 movie.

Rep. Bennie Thompson: "I am standing with Mayor Johnny DuPree"

In a big announcement earlier today, Congressman Bennie Thompson announced his endorsement of Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree in the Democratic gubernatorial primary over Clarksdale businessman and attorney Bill Luckett.  Here is the full text of the announcement email:

Dear Matt,

I have known Johnny DuPree for over 20 years. During this time, I have witnessed his steadfast commitment and passion for service during his tenure as a Forrest County Board Supervisor and as the Mayor of Hattiesburg. I believe this relentless spirit will prove to serve the people of Mississippi well.

As Congressman of Mississippi’s Second Congressional District, I have traveled throughout Mississippi and have encountered Mississippians of all walks of life. I have met citizens who are struggling to find work, are dissatisfied with the state of our failing educational system, and are concerned about the future of healthcare and Medicaid. Mississippians are in need of a capable leader to move Mississippi into a posture for progressive change. Mayor Johnny DuPree is the competent candidate able to bring about this change.

Johnny exhibited his ability to recruit businesses to our state when he helped recruit a multimillion dollar corporation to Hattiesburg that will add over 1,000 jobs for Mississippians, and he has demonstrated fiscal responsibility by not raising taxes during the ten years that he has been mayor of Hattiesburg.

Mayor Dupree epitomizes what determined and pragmatic leadership should be and will help Mississippi realize its full potential by bringing equal access and opportunities to all Mississippians.

Johnny DuPree has always stood beside me, and I am standing with Johnny DuPree.

Please vote for Johnny DuPree for Governor of Mississippi on Tuesday, August 2nd.

Sincerely,

Bennie G. Thompson
Member of Congress
United States House of Representatives, (MS-02)

Internship opportunity

Kate Jacobson, President of the Young Democrats of Mississippi, has passed along the following information on an internship opportunity:

Below is an internship opportunity from the Luckett for Governor campaign. If you're interested in working on any legislative or statewide races this year, send an e-mail to YDMS President Kate Jacobson (kate.jace (at) gmail.com), and we'll work on helping you find an option in your area.

Luckett for Governor Internship

The Luckett for Governor campaign is seeking interns for the 2011 Spring semester. Applicants should be interested in working in a fast paced environment with substantial responsibilities and visibility. The intern will work as a community organizer helping coordinate activities within the congressional district in which they will live. There will be 1 or 2 interns per district depending on district size and the pool of applicants. They will report to a local office workspace and work about 10-15 hours a week building a broad based grassroots coalition devoted to progress for Mississippi.  While this semester’s internship will be for school credit where applicable, the program is intended to be a feeder program wherein the best students will be recruited for paid positions over the summer and/or fall. Interested students should send a resume, two references, and a short answer (150-250 words) to the prompt “Please name one ‘people powered’ movement in American history and explain why you see it as significant” to Brent Caldwell at brentmcaldwell (at) gmail.com. Please include the word “Internship” somewhere in the Subject line. The deadline to apply is January 15th and the start date for the internship will be approximately February 1st.