The "Secret Plan" That Isn't So Secret

Today, Rep. Brad Mayo (R-Oxford) ran this full page ad in The Oxford Citizen, attempting to white-wash his abysmal voting record on the Public Employees Retirement System.

Mayo wants his constituents to think that his record on PERS is just a series of silly partisan accusations, and says that Democrats think there's a "secret plan" to dissolve PERS. 

Mayo is right that there is no secret plan to dissolve PERS.  There is a public plan to dissolve PERS.

And he's the one who introduced it.

In the 2013 session, Brad Mayo introduced House Bill 486, and if it became law, would have provided an opportunity for public employees to opt out of PERS, essentially rendering it useless. 

What incentive might a financial advisor have to dissolve it?

Legislators across Mississippi think that pointing out their record is mud-slinging. I think it's called telling the truth. 

Update:

Here's an ad that ran in the Oxford Eagle for Jay Hughes. What about this is anything other than accountability? 

About That Jim Hood Poll

A poll is circulating around Mississippi showing a close race between incumbent Attorney General Jim Hood and his opponent. The poll shows Jim Hood leading with 50% to his opponent's 44% with 6% undecided (a plurality of the undecided voters are Democrats). This poll also shows a number of statewide Republican incumbents with oddly high re-elect numbers.

Before anyone on either side of these campaigns gets in a tizzy, let's take a look at who conducted the poll. The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. In case you have not heard of them, it is likely because they try to keep their history out of the news. For instance, during the 2012 election cycle, Mason-Dixon had an awful track record.

Mason-Dixon proudly projected that Mitt Romney would carry states like Virginia and Florida - Romney lost both; Mason-Dixon's poll showed Republican pickups in US Senate seats in Montana and North Dakota - Republicans lost both; Mason-Dixon polled a Congressional race in Utah showing a Republican pickup - the Republican lost.

In each poll, Mason-Dixon consistently raised likely turnout expectations among Republican voters anywhere from 4-6 percentage points. The same situation appears to be taking place in their Mississippi poll with Republican candidates running stronger than the historical average.

Is your Legislator Going to Destin on your Dollar?

FLASHBACK (8/11/2013):


This morning, The Clarion Ledger's Geoff Pender wrote a few (1) damning reports (2) about state legislators using taxpayer dollars for trips with lobbyists.

According to Pender, not only did lobbyists cover the cost of much of a trip to Destin, these legislators were then reimbursed by the state for travel, food, etc, essentially double dipping on the taxpayer dollar.

The trip's purpose was to meet with a group pushing for the ability of loan sharks to charge up to 99% on "small" loans. Obviously driving up heinous debt on sometimes the most desperate people.

Now this, at its face, is appalling. But what really sticks out is how legislators like Bubba Carpenter (R-Burnsville), Tracy Arnold (R-Booneville) and Ray Rogers (R-Pearl) responded when they were asked about the trip.

Pender on Rep. Bubba Carpenter (R-Burnsville):

Rep. Bubba Carpenter (R - Burnsville)

...when first contacted, on his way back from the same MCFA event in Destin this year, said: “No, sir, I did not. I didn’t file anything on my state report. (Lobbyist) Buddy Medlin paid for that. I can’t turn that in — (the House Management Committee) wouldn’t have approved it. You’ve got some wires crossed with whatever you’re looking at. … Something’s not geehawing. I would have to be approved by Management, and this is a private convention.” 

...

But then, after checking his expense records, Carpenter said he had been pre-approved by the Management Committee, and the $652.70 he was reimbursed by taxpayers for the travel was for mileage, meals and other out-of-pocket expenses. He said neither the association nor lobbyists provided for all meals at the convention.

Pender on Ray Rogers (R-Pearl):

Rep. Ray Rogers (R- Pearl)

...at first said he recalled only filing mileage and that “where lobbyists pay for motel and so forth, the thing they don’t pay for is mileage.”

“I certainly did not ask for meals,” Rogers said. “Mine better not show meal expenses.”
Records show Rogers was reimbursed $547.04, including $138 for meals. Later, Rogers said: “Well, I apologize. Records show I asked for mileage and meals that weren’t covered. … We don’t double up. We don’t pay anything that the lobbyists cover. No, they don’t cover all meals.”

Pender on Tracy Arnold (R-Booneville):

Rep. Tracy Arnold (R - Booneville)

...had a similar first response: “You’re saying the state paid? I need to check that out because it was my understanding that the Mississippi Consumer Finance Association paid for everything on that trip … That’s the first one of those that I’ve been on … the first time I’ve went to one where someone was supposed to be totin’ and paying it all.” He also said he’s had problems with an assistant at the Capitol who files his expenses.


Arnold state-expensed $654.54 for the trip, including $170 for meals. After checking records, he, too, noted the travel was pre-approved by House Management and directed further questions to House Management Committee Chairman Greg Snowden.

But a 23% increase in travel over the last year sounds less like a mistake, and more like uninhibited corruption (by the way, Speaker Gunn refused to comment for these stories).

So was it complete incompetence or good ol' corruption?

Why not both?

Drug Dealers for Lagasse (and other Republicans)

At a Republican campaign rally in Hancock County today, Republicans Phil Bryant, Tate Reeves, Speaker Philip Gunn, Reps. Timmy Ladner and Mark Formby, and party chairman Joe Nosef stood next to their candidate for House District 122, Mickey Lagasse.

Rallies like this are pretty common - firing up the crowd, taking pictures, handing out stickers. What stood out about this event is where it was being held. The Republican rally took place at the business of Gary Wayne Necaise of Hancock County; Mr. Necaise (mugshot below) has had his fair share of run-ins with the law.

Mickey Lagasse

In 2013, Mr. Necaise - a Lagasse supporter - was arrested with dozens of others (some of which were children) in a massive Hancock County drug bust in where Necaise was charged with the sale of a controlled substance. Such substances, mind you, are responsible for tens of thousands of Americans' deaths each year - now causing more deaths than vehicle accidents. 

That is now all water under the bridge as Republican candidates hold hands with Necaise in a strong show of party unity.

Rep. Bubba Carpenter (R - Burnsville) Caught on Tape, Blatantly Race Baiting

Oftentimes, we are taught to listen for the subtle undertones of Republican language, dog-whistles that are meant to break through some of the dreariest days of Mississippi's past.

We must do this, because it's no longer usually socially acceptable to outright race-bait in Mississippi politics. But this week, Jack Ivy of WRMG-TV was on location to film the Midway Republican Rally, and what Rep. Bubba Carpenter (R-Burnsville) said may shock you.





In the video Carpenter is repeating the now typical (ridiculous) argument from opponents of Initiative 42, suggesting a Hinds County judge would be able to control funds from all sorts of school districts at his liking.  (You can watch the entire Republican rally here.)

Except Bubba went off script a bit. Instead of using the dog-whistle "liberal," Carpenter said what they always meant.

Bubba told a group of constituents that a black judge would be making the decision. And he meant it as a cuss word.  (This has the extra benefit of not even being true, as the Hinds County Chancery Court bench is evenly split, with two black female judges and two white male judges.)

And not only that, Carpenter assured the room that Governor Bryant, Secretary Hosemann, and fellow Representative Donnie Bell would be visiting later to "tell you the same thing."

This is the breakdown of a talking point in action; Carpenter is simply repeating what he heard from fellow Republicans. They wanted to put a black face on this issue, and this time, he forgot to disguise it.

Will they get away with it?

Rep. Brad Mayo Trying to Save Face:

2013 FLASHBACK Brad Mayo tries to break PERS:

Late Sunday night, Representative Brad Mayo (R-Oxford) sent out an email to his constituents trying to save face on some of his recent actions in Jackson. One of the issues covered is House Bill 486, which dramatically alters PERS and how it funds itself.  What Mayo wrote can be found below (Bold is editorial notation of Cottonmouth):

As many of you have seen, I have introduced House Bill 486 - which would allow employees to opt-out of our PERS system. I know it is the source of much worry for many of you (and PERS members around the state). In no way am I trying to undermine the PERS system. If such a consequence is shown to be the case, I will seek to accordingly alter or kill the bill. However, I would like to explain the genesis of this bill and how it may work. I was asked by younger state employees (with families) and by prospective employees about devising a method of retirement planning that did not tie up 9% of their salary. These employees do not expect to make a career of state service and would like to plan for retirement while stretching their paychecks. Thus, we have developed a plan similar to our university system's Optional Retirement Plan (ORP). It would allow a new employee to allocate a pre-determined percentage of their income (up to 9%) that would be placed in the state's existing Deferred Compensation Program and matched by the employer. The employer would then contribute an additional 2.5% to PERS' accrued liability fund. Thus, the employee would have no claim to any PERS funds, but would be contributing 2.5%. Money would go in, but not come out. This should very slightly (depending upon utilization) increase PERS funding levels (assets/liabilities). There is also a provision for existing employees to roll out of the system, but it is quite punitive. Should an existing employee opt to leave PERS for Deferred Comp, they would only be entitled to rollover their contributions, not their employer's or the earnings. Depending upon their years of service, this would allow them to rollover somewhere between 30 and 40% of their account value. That is not a very good deal for anyone with substantial service and any rollover would improve PERS overall funding levels (by losing a small amount of assets, but forgoing all corresponding liability). I have asked for projections on how this might affect PERS.

I have used bold in various parts of this explanation to point out how many times Rep. Mayo treats this bill as a hypothetical scenario. May work? I have asked? The Mississippi State House of Representatives is not a think tank. This is not a thesis.  It is a bill with real life consequences from a Representative of a district that is home to the state's flagship university. So many of the people in his district wouldn't make it without this retirement system.

Out of fairness, I have not changed Rep. Mayo's explanation in any way aside from the bold. But even his explanation doesn't offer any reason to believe that this won't drastically alter PERS as we know it.

Ever seen someone put lipstick on a pig? Watch the video of it here

The latest ad from Mississippi House Republicans is up, and it's got more fibs than a 5 year-old with his hand in a cookie jar.  You can view this pig prettyin' here:

How they mislead on unemployment:

Let's start with those unemployment claims.  The House Republicans in the video are crowing about Mississippi's unemployment numbers.  Sure they are the lowest they've been since 2008, which was right before the lending scandals that wrecked Wall Street and sunk the economy.  But when we take a look at Mississippi's numbers in a bigger context, we see that Mississippi's unemployment numbers have dropped in accordance with the national unemployment numbers:



It's pretty hard to honestly claim credit for something when your numbers are a carbon-copy of the national numbers.  But what about other states?  How did our neighbors do?

Well, Alabama somewhat mirrored the federal employment rebound, but actually had a moment where their unemployment numbers were below the national average.  And that's starting from a point where they were actually worse off than we were after the crash of 2008:




And Arkansas?  They've been under the national average and much better off than us for a long time:




As for Louisiana, I'm sure there were plenty of snide remarks about how their job market was as bad as ours this time last year:


So Republicans can crow all they want, Mississippi is still the worst place in the South to try to find a job.

How they mislead on tax cuts and the budget:

Rep. Jeff Smith (R - Columbus), is seen in the video boasting about tax cuts for small businesses helping to grow the state's economy.  And then Rep. Herb Frierson (R - Poplarville) comes on to say that House Republicans have magically and singlehandedly turned a $587M budget hole into a $410M budget surplus.  Well, the state's economy hasn't grown in response to any state action, as shown above.  But that won't stop the Republicans from trying to claim credit for it, of course.  (What are they going to do after all, thank Obama?!?)  So what gives?

There's really no better way of explaining this than Sarah Miller's piece in the Meridian Star from April of 2014.  Here's a lengthy quote:

Did we really have a surplus in the state budget? It depends on what you mean by surplus. The surplus created by the recent increase in revenue estimates for creation of next year’s budget means that we have had more money than we expected, not more than we need.

While revenues are finally rebounding, they are coming up from a deep trough that caused, among other things, teacher layoffs, reduced per pupil spending at grade schools and high schools, increased college tuition rates, and a dramatic shortage of state troopers.

The revenue surplus is due to understandably conservative revenue estimates that were far below actual revenue collections and spending that was kept largely at recessionary levels. Needs have grown, but state support for education, public safety, and other things that bolster our economy has just recently gotten back up to 2008 levels. Furthermore, providing those services has gotten more expensive, so spending at 2008 levels actually gets us less than it did in 2008.

So what the Republicans are really excited about is using money from the national economic rebound to fund the tax cuts Rep. Smith is talking about instead of rehiring the teachers that were fired in the wake of the Great Recession.

It's funny that Rep. Frierson mentioned there has been a $1B turnaround.  Why is that funny? Because Republicans in the House have also underfunded education by $260M a year for four years.  You do the math.

What have they really been up to for the last four years?

Well aside from getting fat on lobbyist's steak dinners while gutting education, not much, actually.  They did vote to give tax breaks to out-of-state corporations like Wal-mart.  They also refused to allow our federal tax dollars to come back to Mississippi to pay our doctors and nurses so that our hospitals wouldn't go bankrupt.  And they voted to penalize workers who were hurt on the job.  As far as legislative accomplishments go, that's not much to crow about.

What's In Stacey Pickering's Garage

Last week, the Joce Pritchett for Auditor campaign launched a new website highlighting the alleged FBI investigation into State Auditor Stacey Pickering’s misuse of his campaign funds. The website, named after the garage that Pickering purchased for himself with $3,800 in campaign donations, asks what Stacey Pickering his hiding. The website also attacks Pickering for his recent audit of the city of Madison and his family's frequent visits to Disneyland in a campaign vehicle. The Pritchett campaign plans to update the website weekly with new information about what they claim Pickering is hiding from Mississippians. There are definitely things worth exploring in Pickering's dirty garage.

The Failed Phil Bryant Economy

Governor Phil Bryant is out with his latest ad touting his economic record. Don't let Phil Bryant keep lying to you. The Phil Bryant Economy has been a disaster.

On Phil Bryant's watch, there are over 22,000 fewer Mississippians with a job than there were when Phil Bryant and the Republicans took control of state government. In fact, the state's economist has noted the Mississippi's economy went into a recession in 2013 and 2014 and sluggish economic output is projected for 2015. This has been a trend; under the Phil Bryant Economy, most economic reports point to weak economic growth on top of the state's recession. This comes at a time when reports show that the the Phil Bryant Economy is coming up $30 million short of its budget projections while suffering from one of the highest unemployment rates in the country.

While Phil Bryant and the Republicans talk a big game about the state's economy, remember where they have led and kept the state: at the bottom. Mississippi deserves better than the failed Phil Bryant Economy.

Latest AG race poll shows Hood with 57-35 lead

Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood sent out an email to his supporters today touting a 57-35 lead in his internal polling over Republican challenger Mike Hurst.  I can say that I've seen similar numbers over the past couple of weeks, so I doubt these are off-base. These numbers actually represent a decline for Hurst from an April Mason-Dixon poll showing the race at 55-40.

Hurst is trailing Hood in the face of outspending Hood $630,201 to $378,362 on media this campaign.  It likely won't matter how much Hurst raises and spends over the next three weeks. He began the race with no name ID and a scant record, while facing the most popular politician in the state.  So as long as Hood has enough money to stay on air, he'll walk away with the election.  Should Hood continue to raise money, the only parlor game left in this race will be whether Hurst breaks 40%.