Why the MSGOP's "science" is bad

As noted earlier, the MSGOP is now trying to convince folks that the House plan is more gerrymandered than the current map.  And in trying to do that, they're saying it's been "scientifically proven."  Well, it's bad science.

It's bad science and misleading because the Reock test they claim to have used is only one of many methods to determine whether or not districts are compact (and therefore not gerrymandered).  There's also the area/convex hull test, the Polsby-Popper test, and the Schwartzberg test, just to name a few.  And of course, the answer you get depends on the test you choose.  If you don't believe me, go check out the comparison of the different methods at redistrictingthenation.com.  Click on the "State Lower" tab, and you'll see that Rep. Brandon Jones (D-Pascagoula) has the least compact legislative district in the nation according to the area/convex hull test, but it's not even in the top 10 under other methods.  And Reock's least compact district?  The rather straightforward north-south District 5 in the Illinois House.  Why does it go north-south like it does?  Simple: Because it runs along Michigan Avenue.

The bottom line is that the "scientific" tests aren't very scientific at all.

Weekend forecast: 100% chance of whiny Republicans

The weekend got off to an annoying start, with Republicans lighting up state-funded SuperTalk radio in protest of the House redistricting plan's passage.  The trend picked up steam on Twitter and the blogosphere this afternoon.  As it did, it was an uncharacteristically unorganized mess, with repeated shouts of "It's not FAIR!" battering the eyes of readers.  The Mississippi Republican Party and Mississippians for Fair Redistricting (I know, I know...same thing) then attempted to bring some order to the scene with press releases.  Aside from the repeated use of the word "unfair", the releases focused on the "compactness" of the districts, and touted the Reock test as proof that the newly-passed map was less compact than the 2001 map.

So what is this Reock test?  It's called the "circumscribing circle" test, and essentially what you do is draw the smallest circle around a district that you can, and compute the ratio of the area of the district to the area of the circle you drew.  Of course, it's junk science, and I think the MSGOP knows it.  They're just trying to add some steak to their whine.

Majority in Mississippi reports what it's hearing on House redistricting

Majority in Mississippi's got a post up on redistricting in the House, and it mirrors what we've been hearing as well. The highlight is this:

By and large, House Republicans seem pretty happy with their individual districts. It seems most have seen their proposed district, but not the entire map. But like I said, incumbent Republicans seemed OK with what they have been shown leading me to believe the process won’t be as difficult as believed.

It appears as though any challenges to the redistricting plans will come from Republicans outside of the Legislature, such as the group Mississippians for Fair Redistricting.

New redistricting website up

Mississippi Legislative Redistricting 2011, which is subtitled "A closer, comprehensive look at the Mississippi House of Representative plan to redraw all 122 state House districts", is online. It's a great site, and highly informative.

Today, the site hosts a piece from Speaker Billy McCoy (D-Rienzi). In the post, Speaker McCoy confirms that 3 House members will lose their districts, that the City of Madison will gain its own, that DeSoto County will pick up 2 seats, and that the number of split precincts will be greatly reduced. That's pretty substantial stuff.

Speaker McCoy also repeated something we've known for awhile: the rancor over redistricting is largely coming from Republicans who aren't in the Legislature. (See "Mississippians for Fair Redistricting.") The Speaker then warns against the high cost to the taxpayers of litigation over the legislative redistricting plan. High litigation costs for taxpayers aren't historically much of a concern for Republicans, however, so we'll see how this plays out.

Mississippians for Republican Redistricting

A group of longtime Republicans have begun calling themselves "Mississippians for Fair Redistricting." In a press release issued February 3, 2011, the group named only three members: Jim Herring, Joe Nosef, and Jeanne Luckey.

Let's take a look at who each of these people are.

Jim Herring - Former Chairman of the Mississippi Republican Party, "Chairmen of the Chairmen" of the Republican National Committee, and two-time Fordice appointee to open state positions. (Bio here.)

Joe Nosef - Former Chief Counsel to and campaign manager for Gov. Haley Barbour, former Chief of Staff for Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant, board member of the Marsha Barbour Community Center, and member of the Hinds County Republican Executive Committee. (Bio here.)

Jeanne Luckey - Current and former National Committeewoman for the Mississippi Republican Party, Vice-chair of the Mississippi Republican Party, member of the Jackson County Republican Executive Committee and the Ocean Springs Republican Municipal Committee, Chair of the Mississippi Federation of Republican Women, and board member of the National Federation of Republican Women. (Bio here.)

In their release, they say they want the Legislature to adhere to "common sense principles" as the new district lines are drawn in response to last week's 2010 census numbers. Don't be surprised if members of this group make their presence known through state-funded SuperTalk radio and attempt to pass themselves off as nonpartisan.