Monday, March 7, 2011

A new challenge for Rep. Bill Denny

This morning, Jackson attorney Dorsey Carson (D) announced his candidacy for House District 64, a seat currently held by Rep. Bill Denny (R-Jackson).  Carson is a real threat to take this seat, as he is well-connected and will be better funded than any challenger Denny could face.  As an impressive show of strength, Carson has received 133 supportive posts on his Facebook Group's wall in the 14 hours since it was created, and boasts over 1300 members.

This seat is very competitive under the current maps, but less so under the House plan that passed last week.  Currently, District 64 has a black voting age population (called "BVAP" amongst redistricting wonks and the DOJ) of 39.5%.  Under the House plan, the BVAP drops to 26.5%.  In addition to jettisoning 13% BVAP, which traditionally is heavily Democratic, Rep. Denny also picks up Jackson's Eastover neighborhood, which is home to tons of Republican money.

So here's the dilemma for Rep. Denny: if Phil Bryant is successful in blocking the House plan, Denny faces the very real possibility of losing his seat.  If Phil Bryant isn't successful, then Denny likely holds on to office.

Wonder how this is going to play out?

1 comment:

Terry R. Cassreino said...
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