Alan Lange over at Y'all Politics has a post up predicting the statewide primary winners a week out from the election. Lange predicts a 15-point win for Tate Reeves in the GOP Lt. Gov. primary, and in part bases his prediction on a comparison of the 2007 Republican Lt. Gov. primary. In 2007, Phil Bryant was the twice-elected State Auditor, and Charlie Ross was a state senator from Rankin County. Bryant won the nomination in a fairly contentious race, and Lange feels that the dynamic in 2011 between Reeves and Hewes is similar.
I agree that, on the surface, the Reeves-Hewes race seems almost identical to the Bryant-Ross race. There is, however, a major difference. The Republican apparatus that supported Bryant in 2007 is, for the most part, supporting Hewes this time around. So the "team" whose statewide elected official candidate won last time is supporting the state senator this time, and that is a big, big difference.
That being said, I agree with Lange's prediction. Hewes started way behind in name recognition, and I don't believe he has effectively caught up with Reeves. It's very difficult to beat someone that every voting Mississippian has seen on a ballot at least once before. Lange has Reeves winning by 15 points. I'm not sure the margin will be that large, but put me down as believing the margin will be healthy.
4 comments:
Hewes has three knuckleheads advising him who've made several mistakes. I'm not naming names today but most insiders know exactly who I'm talking about.
and as for the state establishment backing Billy, you really don't know what you are talking about.
Uh, Kingfish? What about that Madison fundraiser for Hewes you posted at JJ? If that's not the state GOP establishment, then what is?
Fish, in case you were wondering, Anderson was referring to this post.
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