Monday, August 1, 2011

So what's going to happen tomorrow? (Part 2)

Senate District 1

In this race between incumbent Sen. Doug Davis (R-Hernando) and challenger Chris Massey, I see Davis winning.  Massey's being backed by Sen. Merle Flowers (R-Southaven), I hear, but I don't think it will be enough.  This race is interesting, though, because of the internecine
warfare.  Sen. Flowers, many believe, is set to take Sen. Davis' spot as Appropriations Chairman if Reeves beats Hewes tomorrow.  (Flowers recently put $10,000 into Reeves campaign, a move that didn't seem too risky all that long ago.)

Senate District 8

The legendary Sen. Jack Gordon (D-Okolona) passed away this year, leaving this seat open. This seat leans Democrat, so the winner of the Democrat primary will likely be Gordon's replacement. The four people vying for the Democratic nomination are Russell Jolly, Marshall Coleman, Barry Springer, and Sherman Carouthers. I see Jolly, who has the superior organization, leading this one. The sheer number of candidates likely means a runoff, which I believe Jolly will also win. I have no read whatsoever on the Republican side of this race, which pits Victor Horne against Patsy Gregory.

Senate District 10

Sen. Nolan Mettetal (R-Sardis) is leaving the Senate to run for the House, which puts this seat in realistic play. The Democratic primary is between Michael Cathey and Steve Hale. I'm picking Hale here. The winner will face Republican Van Branch in the general.

Senate District 20

The race to replace Lee Yancey has four entrants: Knox Ross, Steve Gaines, Josh Harkins, and Tony Bahou.  I see this one coming down to a runoff between Knox Ross, the mayor of Pelahatchie, and Josh Harkins, who is in real estate.  Harkins, due to the connections of his father Gary Harkins, received the endorsement of Congressman Gregg Harper and Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant.  (The elder Harkins has been a confidant of Harper's and Bryant's for quite some time.)  I think that endorsement will have Harkins leading the pack tomorrow night, but the large number of candidates makes reaching 50% +1 very tough.  Ross will come in second and the runoff will decide this one.

Senate District 25

Charles Barbour, Will Longwitz, and Sean Corcoran are vying for the Republican nomination in this seat, which is being left vacant by Walter Michel.  It apparently has gotten ugly in the last few days between Barbour and Longwitz.  I'm betting Longwitz pulls this out with his Madison County base.  The winner faces Cecilia Sampayo (D) in the general.

Senate District 29

Republicans Steve Stanford and Gerald Kucia are fighting it out for the right to get shellacked by incumbent Sen. David Blount (D-Jackson) this November.  Kucia's entry into this race is interesting, as he is a plaintiff's attorney with Morgan & Morgan in Jackson.  My guess is that Stanford wins the primary, and that this is some sort of effort by him to build name ID for another race.  Mayor of Clinton, perhaps?  (Rumors are that Mayor Rosemary Aultman won't seek reelection after this term.)

Senate District 31

This one's a doozy.  Rep. Tad Campbell (R-Meridian), was elected to the House in 2007.  Instead of running for reelection, he was talked into running against long-term incumbent Sen. Terry C. Burton (R-Newton).  Campbell's decision had a lot to do with Burton's attempts at reaching a compromise in redistricting and not following the Phil Bryant line.  Some folks are saying Rep. Greg Snowden talked Campbell into this race, but I don't necessarily believe that.  I think this one's going to be close, but that Burton's going to hang on.

Senate District 40

Sen. Sid Albritton is facing opposition from Duck Griffith and Angela Hill in the Republican primary, but Albritton's going to win this one without a primary.  He's been solid for his district, and has given them no reason to remove him.

OK, that's enough.  There's no way I'll get this many right.  If I do, no one will be more shocked than me.

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